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Do Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models Explain Own-history Predictability in Stock Market Returns?

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  • Ashby, M.
  • Linton, O. B.

Abstract

We show that three prominent consumption-based asset pricing models - the Bansal-Yaron, Campbell-Cochrane and Cecchetti-Lam-Mark models - cannot explain the own-history predictability properties of stock market returns. We show this by estimating these models with GMM, deriving ex-ante expected returns from them and then testing whether the difference between realised and expected returns is a martingale difference sequence, which it is not. Furthermore, semi-parametric tests of whether the models' state variables are consistent with the degree of own-history predictability in stock returns suggest that only the Campbell-Cochrane habit variable may be able to explain return predictability, although the evidence on this is mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashby, M. & Linton, O. B., 2022. "Do Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models Explain Own-history Predictability in Stock Market Returns?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2259, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2259
    Note: obl20, mwa22
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption-based asset pricing models; martingale difference sequence; MIDAS; power spectrum; predictability; quantilogram; rescaled range; serial correlation; variance ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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