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Marshall-Lerner Condition and Economic Globalization

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  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

Abstract

The analysis considers the impact of FDI inflows and FDI outflows and shows that the presence of (cumulated) FDI requires higher import elasticities in absolute terms than stated in the standard Marshall Lerner condition. One may derive a range for the elasticity of the ratio of exports to imports with respect to the real exchange rate, namely that the sum of the absolute import elasticities at home and abroad must exceed unity plus an addi-tional parameter - for standard special cases the sum of both elasticities must exceed 2 if a real depreciation is to improve the real current account. Not only can one determine a modified Marshall Lerner condition for a world economy with economic globalization, rather one also can get new insights from considering a broader macroeconomic perspective. The insights obtained are highly relevant for the discussion about high deficits of the US and high surplus positions of countries such as Japan, China and Germany. The relevance of real income effects for current account adjustment - much emphasized by McKinnon - is emphasized here in a specific way: there is a direct real income effect of changes of the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J.J. Welfens, 2009. "Marshall-Lerner Condition and Economic Globalization," EIIW Discussion paper disbei168, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    2. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    3. Bughin, Jacques Rene Jean, 1996. "Exchange Rates, Pricing-to-Market Strategies, and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 211-217, June.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    5. Ronald McKinnon, 2005. "Exchange rate or wage changes in international adjustment?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 261-274, November.
    6. Matthieu Bussière & Simona Delle Chiaie & Tuomas A Peltonen, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy: The Role of Emerging Market Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(1), pages 146-178, April.
    7. Richard C. Marston, 1990. "Price Behavior in Japanese and U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 3364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2006. "Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China versus the United States," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein & Tayyeb Shabbir (ed.), Recent Financial Crises, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2008_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bussière, M. & Delle Chiaie, S. & Peltonen, T. A., 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy," Working papers 424, Banque de France.
    11. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2011. "Innovations in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-11909-5, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Sastre, 2016. "Exchange Rate, Cross Elasticities Between Exports and Imports and Current Account Sustainability: The Spanish Case," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 6, pages 32-46, November.
    2. Mevlud Islami & Paul Welfens, 2013. "Financial market integration, stock markets and exchange rate dynamics in Eastern Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 47-79, March.
    3. Paul J.J Welfens, 2010. "European and Global Reform Requirements for Overcoming the Banking Crisis," EIIW Discussion paper disbei180, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    4. Paul Welfens, 2014. "Issues of modern macroeconomics: new post-crisis perspectives on the world economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 481-527, December.
    5. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "New Marshall-Lerner conditions for an economy with outward and two-way foreign direct investment," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 593-617, October.
    6. Sastre, Luis, 2012. "Simultaneity between export and import flows and the Marshall–Lerner condition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 879-883.
    7. Luis Sastre, 2018. "Marshall-Lerner Condition and the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth: The Spanish Case," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 13, pages 29-38, August.
    8. Paul J.J. Welfens & Tony Irawan, 2014. "Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: New Theoretical Approach and Empirical Findings for US Exports and European Exports," EIIW Discussion paper disbei204, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marshall-Lerner Condition; FDI; Current Account; Globalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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