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An Empirical Analysis of The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate’s Changes on Industrial Restructure

Author

Listed:
  • Boya Wang

    (Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Postgraduate, Research Division: International Finance, China.)

  • Siyue Liu

    (Economics and Management School of Wuhan University, Associate Professor, Research Division: International Finance)

Abstract

This paper establishes a nonlinear semi-logarithmic model to empirically test China’s economic data from 1994 to 2014 in order to analyze directly the impact of RMB exchange rate’s changes on industrial restructuring. We draw the conclusion that the appreciation of nominal effective exchange rate hastens the development of the tertiary industry, while it restrains the secondary industry, and it shows non-significant effects on the primary industry. Different from most previous studies, it comes to the conclusion that RMB nominal effective exchange rate has more influence on the tertiary industry than on the secondary industry, and it supports more strongly that RMB appreciation raises the tertiary industry’s position in the national economy. The reform of exchange rate regime in 2005 has reduced the exchange rate’s impact on economy, so a mature foreign exchange market is conducive to economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Boya Wang & Siyue Liu, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate’s Changes on Industrial Restructure," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 128-139, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:4:p:128-139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal effective exchange rate; industrial restructure; RMB exchange rate regime reform; incomplete pass-through; nonlinear semi-logarithmic model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • L00 - Industrial Organization - - General - - - General

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