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The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Reversed: New Evidence from OECD Countries

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  • Sax, Christoph

    (University of Basel)

  • Gubler, Matthias

Abstract

This paper explores the robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. We analyze a panel of OECD countries from 1970 to 2008 and compare three different datasets on sectoral productivity, including a newly constructed database on total factor productivity. Overall, our DOLS estimation results do not support the BS hypothesis. For the last two decades, we find a very robust negative relationship between the productivity in the tradable sector and the equilibrium real exchange rate, in contrast to BS. Earlier supportive findings depend strongly on the choice of the dataset. Except for the terms of trade, the explanatory power of other variables is weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Sax, Christoph & Gubler, Matthias, 2011. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Reversed: New Evidence from OECD Countries," Working papers 2011/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2011/09
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "The nonlinear ARDL approach and productivity bias hypothesis: Evidence from 68 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 80-89.
    3. Marlene Amstad & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2017. "Long-run effects of exchange rate appreciation: Another puzzle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 63-82, December.
    4. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    5. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    6. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Working Papers 4, New Zealand Centre of Macroeconomics.
    7. Peter Kugler, 2017. "Causes and consequences of long-run currency appreciation: The Swiss case," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 83-100, December.
    8. Konrad Adler & Dr. Christian Grisse, 2014. "Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications," Working Papers 2014-07, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Boris Fisera & Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2023. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Do Remittances Trigger the Dutch Disease?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 23-65, January.
    10. Ernst Baltensperger & Peter Kugler, 2016. "The historical origins of the safe haven status of the Swiss franc:," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(02), pages 1-30, August.
    11. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    12. Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Infrastructures and the real exchange rate," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Olk, Christopher, 2024. "How much a dollar cost: Currency hierarchy as a driver of ecologically unequal exchange," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    14. Roni Frish, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Term," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.03, Bank of Israel.
    15. Alexis Derviz, 2020. "Sovereign Capital, External Balance, and the Investment-Based Balassa-Samuelson Effect in a Global Dynamic Equilibrium," Working Papers 2020/4, Czech National Bank.
    16. Gubler, Matthias & Sax, Christoph, 2012. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Real Exchange Rate," Working papers 2012/08, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    17. Maryam Ishaq & Ghulam Ghouse & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2022. "Another Prospective on Real Exchange Rate and the Traded Goods Prices: Revisiting Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Bacchetta, Philippe & Chikhani, Pauline, 2020. "On the Weakness of the Swedish Krona," CEPR Discussion Papers 15468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Hjortsoe, Ida, 2016. "Imbalances and fiscal policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 225-241.
    20. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
    21. Jian Song, 2024. "Environmental pollution, manufacturing cost disease and structural change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21169-21195, August.
    22. Florian Morvillier, 2020. "Robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson effect: evidence from developing and emerging economies," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    23. Lenarčič, Črt & Masten, Igor, 2020. "Is there a Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect? New panel data evidence from 28 European countries," MPRA Paper 100647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "Empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in selected African countries," MPRA Paper 101495, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Rate; Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis; panel data estimation; terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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