IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bsl/wpaper/2007-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Price Revolution in the 16th Century: Empirical Results from a Structural Vectorautoregression Model

Author

Listed:
  • Bernholz, Peter

    (University of Basel)

  • Kugler, Peter

    (University of Basel)

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis that NEWLINE the secular price increase in the 16th century is mainly caused by money supply NEWLINE developments as the discovery of new mines in Latin America. First we review NEWLINE price developments for several European countries over the 16th century in the NEWLINE light of this hypothesis. Second the application of a SVAR model to annual time NEWLINE series of price indexes for Old Castile and Leon and New Castile over the 16th NEWLINE century indicates that not only the trend but also the short to medium variability of NEWLINE price movements in 16th century Spain are dominated by permanent money NEWLINE supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernholz, Peter & Kugler, Peter, 2007. "The Price Revolution in the 16th Century: Empirical Results from a Structural Vectorautoregression Model," Working papers 2007/12, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2007/12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://edoc.unibas.ch/61240/1/20180305134426_5a9d3baaeff46.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Kindleberger, C.P., 1998. "Economic and Financial Crises and Transformations in Sixteenth-Century Europe," Princeton Essays in International Economics 208, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William VanLear, 2015. "Copernicus and the Quantity Theory of Money," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 5-20.
    2. David Emanuel Andersson & Ã…ke E. Andersson, 2019. "Phase transitions as a cause of economic development," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 51(3), pages 670-686, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bussière, Matthieu & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini E. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2021. "Current Account Dynamics And The Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling The Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 28-58, January.
    2. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying steady‐state growth and inflation in the South African economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 279-300, September.
    3. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2015. "Making the most of high inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3723-3739, July.
    4. Silva Neto, Waldemiro Alcântara da & Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade, 2014. "Growth of Brazilian Beef Production: effect of shocks of supply and demand," Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 52(2), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Oyakhilome IBHAGUI, 2017. "Understanding the sources of high current account fluctuations in 5 developed economies," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 250-274, September.
    6. Mau-Ting Lin, 2004. "Measuring the effect of money: test, estimation and identification," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 53, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Chaudourne, Jeremy & Fève, Patrick & Guay, Alain, 2014. "Understanding the effect of technology shocks in SVARs with long-run restrictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 154-172.
    8. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    9. Erdenebat Bataa & Andrew Vivian & Mark Wohar, 2019. "Changes in the relationship between short‐term interest rate, inflation and growth: evidence from the UK, 1820–2014," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 616-640, October.
    10. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
    11. Ines Perez-Soba Aguilar & Elena Marquez de la Cruz & Ana Rosa Martinez-Canete & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "Capital Stock and Unemployment: Searching for the Missing Link," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_475, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Maurizio Bovi, 2014. "Shocks and the Expectations Formation Process. A Tale of Two Expectations," Natural Field Experiments 00390, The Field Experiments Website.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:64:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    15. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Imran H. Shah & Ian Corrick & Abdul Saboor, 2018. "How should Central Banks Respond to Non-neutral Inflation Expectations?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 321-351, April.
    17. Rangan GUPTA & Roula INGLESI-LOTZ, 2012. "Macro Shocks and Real US Stock Prices with Special Focus on the “Great Recession”," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
    18. William Crowder & Mark Wohar, 2004. "A cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 195-213.
    19. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2249-2285, May.
    20. Olugbenga A. Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2015. "Structural Vector Auto Regression Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Shocks in Renewable Electricity Generation on Economic Output and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: China, India and Japan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1022-1032.
    21. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price revolution; money demand; money supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2007/12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WWZ (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wwzbsch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.