IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bro/econwp/2021-001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Mussa Puzzle: A Generalization

Author

Listed:
  • Cosimo Petracchi

Abstract

One of the most compelling pieces of evidence for monetary non-neutrality is the Mussa puzzle, in which the break in the monetary regime when the Bretton Woods System broke down increased the volatility of not only the nominal exchange rate but the real exchange rate. Using data covering thirty-one European countries from 1954 to 2019, I find that the Mussa puzzle is generalizable: any break in a monetary regime that changes the volatility of the nominal exchange rate also changes the volatility of the real exchange rate. This provides further evidence of monetary non-neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Cosimo Petracchi, 2021. "The Mussa Puzzle: A Generalization," Working Papers 2021-001, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2021-001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292122001295
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    3. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January.
    4. Marc Lavielle & Eric Moulines, 2000. "Least‐squares Estimation of an Unknown Number of Shifts in a Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 33-59, January.
    5. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Lavielle, Marc, 1999. "Detection of multiple changes in a sequence of dependent variables," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 79-102, September.
    9. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    10. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2015. "The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(2), pages 281-297, September.
    11. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    13. Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victor Shevchuk & Roman Kopych, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petracchi, Cosimo, 2022. "The Mussa puzzle: A generalization," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    3. Federico Belotti & Alessandro Casini & Leopoldo Catania & Stefano Grassi & Pierre Perron, 2023. "Simultaneous bandwidths determination for DK-HAC estimators and long-run variance estimation in nonparametric settings," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 281-306, February.
    4. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Gawon Yoon, 2011. "Changing volatility of long-term UK interest rates during Pax Britannica," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 69-74.
    6. Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.
    7. Hong, Yongmiao & Linton, Oliver & McCabe, Brendan & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "Kolmogorov–Smirnov type testing for structural breaks: A new adjusted-range based self-normalization approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    8. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Tests for Breaks in the Conditional Co-movements of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-59, CIRANO.
    9. Casini, Alessandro, 2023. "Theory of evolutionary spectra for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust inference in possibly misspecified and nonstationary models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 372-392.
    10. Kostyrka, Andreï & Malakhov, Dmitry, 2021. "Was there ever a shift: Empirical analysis of structural-shift tests for return volatility," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 61, pages 110-139.
    11. Kim, Moosup & Lee, Taewook & Noh, Jungsik & Baek, Changryong, 2014. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for multiple volatility shifts," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 50-60.
    12. Elena Andreou, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 290-318.
    13. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    14. Getu Hailu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink, 2015. "Empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(51), pages 5491-5509, November.
    15. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M Miller, 2017. "Inflation Persistence Before and After Inflation Targeting: A Fractional Integration Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 78-103, January.
    16. Fan, Jianqing & Liao, Yuan & Shi, Xiaofeng, 2015. "Risks of large portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 367-387.
    17. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp067, IIIS.
    18. Wouter J. Den Haan & Andrew T. Levin, 1995. "Inferences from parametric and non-parametric covariance matrix estimation procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 504, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Abhimanyu Gupta & Myung Hwan Seo, 2023. "Robust Inference on Infinite and Growing Dimensional Time‐Series Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1333-1361, July.
    20. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bro:econwp:2021-001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brown Economics Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.