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Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Seth G. Benzell

    (Boston University)

  • Eugene Goryunov

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Maria Kazakova

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Guillermo Lagarda

    (Boston University)

  • Kristina Nesterova

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff

    (Boston University, NBER)

Abstract

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth G. Benzell & Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Guillermo Lagarda & Kristina Nesterova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, "undated". "Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-274, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-274
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    File URL: http://kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/russia-2-0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate income tax; tax reform; demographic transition; overlapping generations (OLG); computable general equilibrium models (CGE); wage inequality; Pareto improvements; fossil fuels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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