IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/07-e-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The determinants of credit spread changes in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Shinsuke Ohyama

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Takuya Sugimoto

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the relationship between credit spread changes in Japan and financial and macroeconomic variables such as the risk-free interest rate and stock price indices. We use a model that belongs to the class of so-called structural models for corporate bond pricing originally developed by Merton (1974) and extended by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) among others. Our empirical results indicate that credit spreads in Japan are negatively correlated with the risk-free interest rate and with corporate financial conditions (which stand proxy for the market valuations of firms). The magnitude of such correlations increases as the credit ratings of the bond issuers decline. These results are consistent with the implications of structural models and with the related literatures in the U.S. and Europe. We also find that credit spreads in Japan are positively correlated with the implied volatility of interest rates. In other words, an increase in uncertainty about future interest-rate contributes to the widening in credit spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinsuke Ohyama & Takuya Sugimoto, 2007. "The determinants of credit spread changes in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:07-e-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2007/data/wp07e04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kimura Takeshi & Small David H., 2006. "Quantitative Monetary Easing and Risk in Financial Asset Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-54, March.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    3. Rohan Churm & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2005. "Decomposing credit spreads," Bank of England working papers 253, Bank of England.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Hiroshi Ugai, 2006. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    6. Seppo Pynnönen & Warren P. Hogan & Jonathan A. Batten, 2006. "Dynamic equilibrium correction modelling of yen Eurobond credit spreads," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp127, IIIS.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2017. "The term structure of credit spreads and business cycle in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 27-36.
    2. Naoto Higashio & Takahiro Hirakawa & Ryo Nagaushi & Shinsuke Ohyama & Atsushi Takanashi, 2016. "Determinants of Launch Spreads on EM USD-Denominated Corporate Bonds," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    3. Satoshi Tezuka & Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2018. "Credit Spread, Financial Market and Real Activities under Financial Instability: Empirical Evidence with MS-SBVAR," Discussion Papers 1812, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Ephraim Clark & Selima Baccar, 2018. "Modelling credit spreads with time volatility, skewness, and kurtosis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 431-461, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. SHAH, Syed Muhammad Noaman Ahmed & KEBEWAR, mazen, 2013. "US Corporate Bond Yield Spread: A default risk debate," MPRA Paper 44887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Azad, A.S.M.S. & Azmat, Saad & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Ahsan, Amirul, 2018. "Can Islamic banks have their own benchmark?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 120-136.
    3. Gady Jacoby & Chuan Liao & Jonathan A. Batten, 2007. "A Pure Test for the Elasticity of Yield Spreads," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp195, IIIS.
    4. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    5. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Fenglong Guo, 2025. "Pricing Vulnerable Options With Variance Gamma Systematic and Idiosyncratic Factors by Laplace Transform Inversion," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 47-76, January.
    7. Sandrine Lardic & Claire Gauthier, 2003. "Un modèle multifactoriel des spreads de crédit : estimation sur panels complets et incomplets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 53-69.
    8. Hilscher, Jens & Raviv, Alon, 2014. "Bank stability and market discipline: The effect of contingent capital on risk taking and default probability," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 542-560.
    9. Giampaolo Gabbi & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "Which factors affect corporate bonds pricing? Empirical evidence from eurobonds primary market spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 59-74.
    10. Stellner, Christoph & Klein, Christian & Zwergel, Bernhard, 2015. "Corporate social responsibility and Eurozone corporate bonds: The moderating role of country sustainability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 538-549.
    11. Olivier Le Courtois, 2022. "On the Diversification of Fixed Income Assets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Zhao, Hong & Shen, Hao & Wang, Haizhi & Zhu, Yun, 2024. "State corporate tax changes and bond pricing: U.S. evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
    14. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    15. Corò, Filippo & Dufour, Alfonso & Varotto, Simone, 2013. "Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5511-5525.
    16. Sangwon Suh & Inwon Jang & Misun Ahn, 2013. "A Simple Method For Measuring Systemic Risk Using Credit Default Swap Market Data," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 75-100, December.
    17. Hong-Ming Yin & Jin Liang & Yuan Wu, 2018. "On a New Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Potential Credit Rating Change and Stochastic Interest Rate," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Theodore M. Barnhill, Jr & Marcos Rietti Souto, 2009. "Systemic Bank Risk in Brazil: A Comprehensive Simulation of Correlated Market, Credit, Sovereign and Inter‐Bank Risks," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 243-283, November.
    19. Cumby, Robert E. & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging market debt: measuring credit quality and examining relative pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 591-609, October.
    20. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:07-e-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.