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Stabilized Business Cycles with Increased Output Volatility at High Frequencies

Author

Listed:
  • Takeshi Kimura

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kyosuke Shiotani

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

In Japan, like many other industrialized countries, output volatility declined dramatically in the 1980s. In order to investigate the cause of this decline, we decompose the variance of output growth by frequency. Our important findings are: (1) The total variance of output growth decreased, which resulted from a reduction in the volatility at business-cycle frequencies; (2) At business-cycle frequencies, the variance of production fell by a larger percentage than did the variance of sales; and (3) In stark contrast, at high frequencies, the variance of production increased, while the variance of sales decreased. These features of production at different frequencies cannot be explained by changes in the sales process and cost-shock process. Instead, improved business practices----such as the adoption of the just-in-time technique----played a direct role in stabilizing the business cycles, while increasing output volatility at high frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Takeshi Kimura & Kyosuke Shiotani, 2007. "Stabilized Business Cycles with Increased Output Volatility at High Frequencies," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-23, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:07-e-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kumano, Yusuke & Muto, Ichiro & Nakano, Akihiro, 2014. "What explains the recent fluctuations in Japan’s output? A structural factor analysis of Japan’s industrial production," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 135-153.
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Do production managers predict turning points? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-8.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2011. "Input And Output Inventories In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1179-1213, November.
    4. Young Gak Kim & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2017. "Aggregate and Firm-level Volatility in the Japanese Economy," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 158-172, June.
    5. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    6. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Murase, Koichi, 2013. "Great Moderation in the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 10-24.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output volatility; Inventories; Business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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