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The effect of changes in official UK rates on market interest rates since 1987

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  • Spencer Dale

Abstract

It is widely accepted that a central bank, such as the Bank of England, has the ability to control very short-term interest rates. Moreover, a number of studies have documented the very close relationship between Bank-administered rates (notably the Band 1 stop rate) and their market analogues. This paper investigates the extent to which the Bank is able to influence market interest rates more generally, as opposed to just very short-term interest rates, by analysing the reaction of market interest rates to the thirty movements in the Bank's Band 1 stop rate between the beginning of 1987 and July 1991. The movements of interest rates at seven different maturities (1, 3, 6 and 12-months and 5, 10 and 20-years) were considered. The results suggest that changes in the Bank of England's Band 1 stop rate lead to significant responses in market interest rates ranging in maturity from 1-month to 5-years. These findings are supportive of the proposition that longer maturity rates are influenced by expectations of the future path of short rates, and hence in part by the current level of official rates. In addition, there was evidence of systematic movements in money market interest rates both in the days leading up to the policy change and, more surprisingly, on the day immediately following the changes. Finally, preliminary estimates suggest that the reaction of market rates increases when the change in interest rates coincides with a switch in the direction of these official changes. This may reflect the markets' recognition that when the direction of interest rate changes has just switched, the probability that this change will be reversed in the near future is lessened.

Suggested Citation

  • Spencer Dale, 1993. "The effect of changes in official UK rates on market interest rates since 1987," Bank of England working papers 10, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
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    4. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hardy, Daniel C., 1996. "Market reaction to changes in German official interest rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2001. "Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-262, September.
    3. Reinhart, Vincent & Simin, Timothy, 1997. "The market reaction to federal reserve policy action from 1989 to 1992," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-168.
    4. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.
    6. Kaketsis, Asimakis & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 487-504.
    7. Kavanagh, Ella & Zhu, Sheng & O’Sullivan, Niall, 2022. "Monetary policy, trade-offs and the transmission of UK Monetary Policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1128-1147.
    8. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Karel Brůna, 2007. "Měnová politika, změny trendové inflace a nestabilita úrokových relací: analýza dynamiky dlouhodobých úrokových sazeb v kontextu změn repo sazby české národní banky [Monetary policy, trend inflatio," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(1), pages 3-22.
    10. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between UK Treasury Bills and the Term Structure of Certificates of Deposit," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 143-160, April.
    12. Peersman, Gert, 2002. "Monetary policy and long term interest rates in Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 271-277, October.
    13. Jones, Brad & Lin, Chien-Ting & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2005. "Macroeconomic announcements, volatility, and interrelationships: An examination of the UK interest rate and equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 356-375.
    14. Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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