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Monetary policy and the management of uncertainty: a narrative approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tuckett, David

    (UCL Centre for the Study of Decision-Making Uncertainty, University College London)

  • Holmes, Douglas

    (Binghamton University)

  • Pearson, Alice

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Chaplin, Graeme

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

In this paper we explore how macroeconomic theory might be augmented, and the practice of monetary policy better understood, if approached through ideas from social and psychological science. A modern, inflation-targeting central bank faces ‘radical’ uncertainty both in understanding the economy and in knowing how best to communicate policy decisions to influence behaviour. We make use of narrative theory to explore these challenges, drawing on fieldwork with the Bank’s regional Agencies and conversations with staff and policy-makers. We find that the intelligence gathered from conversations with businesses is uniquely useful for both the analysis and communication of monetary policy. Such intelligence embodies knowledge about the plans which are making the future. It also provides insights into how economic agents understand the economy they are creating. These insights can help the Monetary Policy Committee to communicate its policy as a narrative the public understands and commits to. We propose further research to advance and test these ideas.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuckett, David & Holmes, Douglas & Pearson, Alice & Chaplin, Graeme, 2020. "Monetary policy and the management of uncertainty: a narrative approach," Bank of England working papers 870, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0870
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nyman, Rickard & Kapadia, Sujit & Tuckett, David, 2021. "News and narratives in financial systems: Exploiting big data for systemic risk assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Müller, Henrik & Schmidt, Tobias & Rieger, Jonas & Hufnagel, Lena Marie & Hornig, Nico, 2022. "A German inflation narrative. How the media frame price dynamics: Results from a RollingLDA analysis," DoCMA Working Papers 9, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund Center for Data-based Media Analysis (DoCMA).
    3. Radu Șimandan & Cristian Valeriu Păun & Bogdan Glăvan, 2023. "Post-Pandemic Greenness? How Central Banks Use Narratives to Become Green," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-28, January.
    4. Timothy Betts & Patrice M. Buzzanell, 2022. "Enacting Economic Resilience: A Synthesis of Economic and Communication Frameworks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Łukasz Baszczak, 2023. "Ekonomia narracji – początki nowego nurtu," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 66-81.
    6. Beckert, Jens & Arndt, H. Lukas R., 2024. "The Greek tragedy: Narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis," MPIfG Discussion Paper 24/4, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; narrative theory; uncertainty; inflation-targeting; central bank communication; macroeconomic theory; economic knowledge;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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