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Understanding US export dynamics: does modelling the extensive margin of exports help?

Author

Listed:
  • Dogan, Aydan

    (Bank of England)

  • Hjortsoe, Ida

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether recent advances in modelling the extensive margin of exports contribute to our understanding of export fluctuations over the business cycle. Using US and euro-area data, we estimate a general equilibrium model in which the extensive margin of exports varies over the business cycle. A comparison of its performance to two similar models that differ in their modelling of the extensive margin of exports shows that, while recent advances in modelling the extensive margin of trade help replicate exports dynamics, this is not the result of a good fit to the observed extensive margin of exports: the model-implied extensive margin of exports varies considerably more than the data suggests.

Suggested Citation

  • Dogan, Aydan & Hjortsoe, Ida, 2020. "Understanding US export dynamics: does modelling the extensive margin of exports help?," Bank of England working papers 859, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export dynamics; heterogeneous firms; extensive margin of trade; international business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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