Urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Beijing: Current and Future

This paper calculates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing over 2005-2011 in light of the Beijing's energy balance table and the carbon emission coefficients of IPCC. Furthermore, based on a series of energy conservation planning program issued in Beijing, the LEAP-BJ model is developed to study the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing's six end-use sectors and the energy conversion sector over 2012-2030 under the BAU scenario and POL scenario. Some results are found in this research: (1) during 2005-2011, the energy consumption kept increasing, while the total CO2 emissions fluctuated obviously in 2008 and 2011. The energy structure and the industrial structure have been optimized to a certain extent. (2) If the policies are completely implemented, the POL scenario is projected to save 21.36% and 35.37% of the total energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the BAU scenario during 2012 and 2030. (3) The POL scenario presents a more optimized energy structure compared with the BAU scenario, with the decrease of coal consumption and the increase of natural gas consumption. (4) The commerce and service sector and the energy conversion sector will become the largest contributor to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, respectively. The transport sector and the industrial sector are the two most potential sectors in energy savings and carbon reduction. In terms of sub-scenarios, the TEC is the most effective one. (5) The macro parameters, such as the GDP growth rate and the industrial structure have great influence on the urban energy consumption and carbon emissions.