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Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96

Author

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  • William Melick

    (Kenyon College)

  • Gabriele Galati

Abstract

This paper uses a new data set, based on Reuters news articles, to capture intervention that is perceived by FX traders and probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from option data to describe market expectations. We find that, between September 1993 and April 1996, traders viewed the Bank of Japan as responding mainly to deviations of the exchange rate from what they considered to be some implicit target levels. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve was viewed to have mainly intervened when market conditions seemed most conducive to a successful intervention. We find that perceived intervention had no statistically significant effect on the exchange rate level and on the skewness of the PDFs. We also present evidence that, on average, perceived intervention increased traders' uncertainty about future exchange rate movements.

Suggested Citation

  • William Melick & Gabriele Galati, 1999. "Perceived central bank intervention and market expectations: an empirical study of the yen/dollar exchange rate, 1993 - 96," BIS Working Papers 77, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:77
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage, 1992. "Post-Louvre intervention: did target zones stabilize the dollar?," Working Papers (Old Series) 9203, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Almekinders, Geert J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W., 1996. "A friction model of daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve intervention," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1365-1380, September.
    3. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1993. "Does Central Bank Intervention Increase the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Geert J. Almekinders, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Intervention," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 71.
    5. Catherine Bonser-Neal & Glenn Tanner, 1995. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Research Working Paper 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beine, Michel & Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Intervention policy of the BoJ: A unified approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 904-913, May.
    2. Michel Beine & Ariane Szafarz, 2006. "Size matters: Central bank interventions on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 49(1), pages 5-20.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Humpage, Owen F. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Intervention from an information perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 407-421, December.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March.
    5. Disyatat, Piti & Galati, Gabriele, 2007. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries: Evidence from the Czech koruna," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 383-402, April.
    6. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso, 2018. "Realized Volatility as an Instrument to Official Intervention," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Alberto Ortiz-Bolaños (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 259-281, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    7. Hu, May & Li, Yunfeng & Yang, Jingjing & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2016. "Actual intervention and verbal intervention in the Chinese RMB exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 499-508.
    8. Соломія Бричка & Денис Клиновський & Дмитро Круковець & Артем Огарков, 2019. "Мета-аналіз: ефект fx-інтервенцій на валютний курс," Suchasni ekonomichni doslidzhennja, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-47.
    9. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.
    10. Viola, Alessandra Pasqualina & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & da Silveira Barbedo, Claudio Henrique, 2019. "Foreign exchange interventions in Brazil and their impact on volatility: A quantile regression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 251-263.
    11. Jean-Yves Gnabo & J�rôme Lahaye & S�bastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
    12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:55:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:77:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
    15. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy: With or Without Transparency? The Case of Japan," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 5-34.
    16. Solomiia Brychka & Denys Klynovskyi & Dmytro Krukovets & Artem Oharkov, 2019. "Meta-Analysis: Meta-Analysis: Effect of FX interventions on the exchange rate," Modern Economic Studies, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-44.
    17. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Morel, Christophe & Teïletche, Jérôme, 2008. "Do interventions in foreign exchange markets modify investors' expectations? The experience of Japan between 1992 and 2004," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-231, March.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12956 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Piti Disyatat & Gabriele Galati, 2005. "The effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in emerging market countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 97-113, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Michel Beine & Ariane Szafarz, 2003. "The design of effective Central Bank interventions: the yen/dollar case," Working Papers CEB 03-008.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Yushi Yoshida & Jan C. Rülke, 2009. "On-Going versus Completed Interventions and Yen/Dollar Expectations - Evidence from Disaggregated Survey Data," Discussion Papers 35, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Dec 2009.
    23. Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent & Franz Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets assessed using realized moments," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10407, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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