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Fragility determinants of the private corporate sector in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Sebastián Lemus
  • Adriana María Corredor-Waldron
  • Javier Gutiérrez Rueda

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to identify a set of early warning indicators that effectively discriminate between firms that are more prone to default on their financial obligations from those that are less prone to do so. To fulfill this objective, we use the Discriminant Analysis methodology. We find that the strongest predictors that a Colombian real sector firm will fail to meet their financial obligations are: debt ratio and the number of banking relationships. We also use a Logit model to estimate the debtors probability of default (PD) and its distribution. The PD distribution has a positive skew and leptokurtic, suggesting a low overall PD. When performing a stress test (i.e. when a negative shock is applied to the firms’ performance), we find that the PD distribution shifts to the right causing an increase in loan loss provisions and a decrease in net profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Sebastián Lemus & Adriana María Corredor-Waldron & Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2012. "Fragility determinants of the private corporate sector in Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 066, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:066
    DOI: 10.32468/tef.66
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan S. Lemus-Esquivel & Carlos A. Quicazán-Moreno & Jorge L. Hurtado-Guarín & Angélica Lizarazo-Cuéllar, 2015. "Financial Soundness Index for the Private Corporate Sector in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 13415, Banco de la Republica.
    2. María Fernanda Meneses-González & Javier Eliecer Pirateque-Niño & Santiago David Segovia-Baquero, 2019. "Indicadores de alerta temprana para el sector corporativo privado colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1084, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Juan S. Lemus-Esquivel & Carlos A. Quicazán-Moreno & Jorge L. Hurtado-Guarín & Angélica Lizarazo-Cuéllar, 2015. "Financial Soundness Index for the Private Corporate Sector in Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 82, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discriminant analysis; default; Logit; Colombian corporate sector; credit risk; stress testing.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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