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Un análisis de sobrevaloración en el mercado de la vivienda en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Caicedo
  • Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera
  • David Pérez-Reyna

Abstract

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo SVAR, donde se imponen restricciones de largo plazo para identificar choques de demanda y oferta en el mercado hipotecario. Con el modelo se analiza si el comportamiento del precio real de la vivienda en Colombia diverge de la tendencia de sus fundamentales, y se determina si ha existido sobrevaloración en los precios para el período 2008-2009. Los resultados sugieren que en el largo plazo los principales determinantes del precio de lavivienda son los choques de demanda por este activo, los costos de construcción asociados con los choques de oferta y el crecimiento económico. Finalmente, se encuentra que los actuales niveles de estos precios están por encima de lo proyectado por los fundamentales analizados.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Caicedo & Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera & David Pérez-Reyna, 2010. "Un análisis de sobrevaloración en el mercado de la vivienda en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 051, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:051
    DOI: 10.32468/tef.51
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
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    4. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 339-366.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precio de la vivienda; SVAR; restricciones de largo plazo; demanda por vivienda.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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