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Relación entre los valores en riesgo de los principales mercados financieros colombianos: un enfoque a través de modelos multivariados de regresión cuantílica

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En este documento se estima el valor en riesgo a partir de un modelo multivariado de regresión cuantílica. Este tipo de modelos permiten capturar hechos estilizados de las series financieras y evitan imponer supuestos relacionados con la distribución de estas variables. A diferencia de las metodologías usuales de enfoque univariado, ésta toma en cuenta interrelaciones con riesgos de mercado de otras variables. Adicionalmente, este tipo de modelos permite calcular funciones de pseudo impulso-respuesta. Este modelo se estimó sobre el índice de mercado bursátil de la bolsa de valores (COLCAP), la tasa de cambio con respecto al dólar (TRM) y un índice de precios de títulos de deuda pública (IDXTES) para la muestra comprendida entre el periodo 04/Ene/2008 y 23/Nov/2015. Al comparar el VaR obtenido por este modelo con técnicas tradicionales, se encontró que las medidas de riesgo de mercado bajo esta metodología tienen un buen desempeño. Adicionalmente, las funciones de pseudo impulso-respuesta indican que los choques generados en las variables TRM e IDXTES presentan respuestas negativas y persistentes en sus propios valores en riesgo. Por otro lado, los mayores impactos cruzados en los valores en riesgo se presentan en las series TRM y COLCAP ante choques en IDXTES; y en IDXTES ante choques en TRM.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Mariño-Ustacara & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Relación entre los valores en riesgo de los principales mercados financieros colombianos: un enfoque a través de modelos multivariados de regresión cuantílica," Borradores de Economia 975, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:975
    DOI: 10.32468/be.975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Valor en riesgo; regresión cuantílica multivariada; procesos CAViaR; funciones de pseudo impulso-respuesta.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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