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Regresión Cuantílica Dinámica para la Medición del Valor en Riesgo: una Aplicación a Datos Colombianos

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Abstract

En este documento se estima el valor en riesgo utilizando métodos semiparamétricos basados en regresión cuantílica lineal y no lineal. En particular, se usan varias especificaciones de la familia de modelos CAViaR. Estos modelos permiten capturar hechos estilizados de las series financieras y vitan imponer supuestos relacionados con la distribución de los activos financieros. Adicionalmente, estas metodologías son comparadas con técnicas de VaR tradicionales para la tasa de cambio representativa del mercado, un índice de precios de bonos de deuda pública, y el índice de la bolsa de valores de Colombia, durante el periodo comprendido entre diciembre de 2007 y noviembre de 2015. En general, se encontró que las medidas de riesgo de mercado bajo estas metodologías tienen un mejor desempeño respecto a las tradicionales.

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  • Daniel Mariño Ustacara & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2016. "Regresión Cuantílica Dinámica para la Medición del Valor en Riesgo: una Aplicación a Datos Colombianos," Borradores de Economia 939, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:939
    DOI: 10.32468/be.939
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valor en riesgo; regresión cuantílica; regresión cuantílica no lineal; procesos CAViaR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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