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The case for active management from the perspective of Complexity Theory

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  • Alejandro Revéiz Herault
  • Sebastian Rojas

Abstract

This paper approaches active management of baskets of currencies from the perspective of Complexity theory, where the market is analysed as a Complex Adaptive system. A basket of currencies is constructed using objective probabilities (propensities) and an artificial intelligence optimization technique that allows for implicit learning of correlations dynamics. Statistical tests of the diversification benefit are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Revéiz Herault & Sebastian Rojas, 2008. "The case for active management from the perspective of Complexity Theory," Borradores de Economia 495, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:495
    DOI: 10.32468/be.495
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Doyne Farmer & Andrew W. Lo, 1999. "Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets," Working Papers 99-06-039, Santa Fe Institute.
    2. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Reveiz‐Herault, 2016. "An Active Asset Management Investment Process for Drawdown‐Averse Investors," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1-2), pages 85-96, January.
    2. Alejandro Reveiz Herault, 2008. "The Factor-Portfolios Approach to Asset Management using Genetic Algorithms," Borradores de Economia 511, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos León, 2010. "Efficient Portfolio Optimization in the Wealth Creation and Maximum Drawdown Space," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Arjan B. Berkelaar & Joachim Coche & Ken Nyholm (ed.), Interest Rate Models, Asset Allocation and Quantitative Techniques for Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds, chapter 7, pages 134-157, Palgrave Macmillan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio Management; Complexity Theory; Artificial Intelligence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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