IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1261.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

El impacto potencial de los movimientos de portafolio de los inversionistas extranjeros sobre la tasa de cambio en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Ariza-Murillo
  • Fredy Gamboa-Estrada
  • Camilo Andrés Orozco-Vanegas

Abstract

Los movimientos de portafolio de los inversionistas extranjeros pueden afectar el mercado cambiario colombiano principalmente a través de la demanda por cobertura que realizan en el mercado de derivados cambiarios, y del cambio de dólares por pesos que se materializa al invertir en títulos de deuda pública (TES). Este artículo analiza el impacto potencial que pueden tener los movimientos de portafolio de estos inversionistas sobre la tasa de cambio de contado en Colombia. Utilizando modelos GARCH, los resultados evidencian que las variaciones de las posiciones de los inversionistas extranjeros en el mercado de non-delivery-forwards (NDF) y en el mercado de TES tienen un efecto estadísticamente significativo, pequeño y de corta duración sobre la tasa de cambio. Dicho efecto es mayor en el mercado de NDF. Adicionalmente, se evidencia una relación positiva y de muy corto plazo entre los retornos de la tasa de cambio y la variación de la posición neta de los inversionistas extranjeros (compras) en el mercado de NDF, mientras que dicha relación resulta negativa y más persistente para los flujos de inversión de los extranjeros en el mercado de TES. **** ABSTRACT: Foreign portfolio investments can affect the Colombian exchange market mainly through the demand for hedging that investors make in the foreign exchange derivatives market, and the exchange of dollars for pesos that materializes when investing in public debt securities (TES). This paper analyzes the potential impact that portfolio movements of foreign investors may have on the spot exchange rate in Colombia. Using GARCH models, the results evidence that changes in the positions of foreign investors in the non-delivery-forwards (NDF) market and in the TES market have a statistically significant, small and short-lived effect on the exchange rate. This effect is greater in the NDF market. Additionally, a positive and very short-term relationship is evident between the exchange rate returns and the variation in the net position of foreign investors (purchases) in the NDF market, while the relationship is negative and more persistent for investment flows of foreigners in the TES market.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Ariza-Murillo & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Camilo Andrés Orozco-Vanegas, 2023. "El impacto potencial de los movimientos de portafolio de los inversionistas extranjeros sobre la tasa de cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1261, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1261
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1261
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1261
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1261?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso Corredor, 2018. "El uso de forwards peso dólar en las empresas colombianas del sector real," Borradores de Economia 1058, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Nathali Cardozo Alvarado & Juan Sebastián Rassa Robayo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2014. "Caracterización del Mercado de Derivados Cambiarios en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 12387, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Vishwanathan Iyer & Kaushik Roy Chowdhury, 2009. "Spectral Analysis: Time Series Analysis in Frequency Domain," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(5-6), pages 83-101, September.
    5. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    6. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    7. Filardo, Andrew & Gelos, Gaston & McGregor, Thomas, 2022. "Exchange-Rate Swings and Foreign Currency Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 17570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28.
    9. Nathali Cardozo Alvarado & Juan Sebastián Rassa Robayo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2014. "Caracterización del Mercado de Derivados Cambiarios en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 860, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Diego Vásquez E. & Pedro Felipe Lega G. & Andrés Murcia P. & Tatiana Venegas K., 2008. "Volatilidad de la tasa de cambio nominal en Colombia y su relación con algunas variables," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    11. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    12. Pamela Cardozo & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Jesahel Higuera-Barajas, 2019. "El rol del sector real en el mercado de derivados y su impacto sobre la tasa de cambio," Borradores de Economia 1079, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Pedro Felipe Lega & Andrés Murcia & Diego Vásquez & Tatiana Venegas, 2007. "Volatilidad de la tasa de cambio nominal en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4390, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pamela Cardozo & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Jesahel Higuera-Barajas, 2019. "El rol del sector real en el mercado de derivados y su impacto sobre la tasa de cambio," Borradores de Economia 1079, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Fredy Gamboa-Estrada, 2023. "The Role of Foreign Investors and Local Agents in the Derivatives Market and their Impact on the Exchange Rate in Colombia: A Wavelet Analysis," IHEID Working Papers 12-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Cryptocurrency spectrum and 2020 pandemic: Contagion analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 29-38.
    4. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," Cuadernos de Desarrollo Económico 7586, Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico.
    5. Fengler, Matthias & Polivka, Jeanine, 2022. "Identifying Structural Shocks to Volatility through a Proxy-MGARCH Model," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264010, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Liu, Li & Chen, Ching-Cheng & Wan, Jieqiu, 2013. "Is world oil market “one great pool”?: An example from China's and international oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 364-373.
    7. Fengler, Matthias & Polivka, Jeannine, 2021. "Proxy-identification of a structural MGARCH model for asset returns," Economics Working Paper Series 2103, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Oct 2024.
    8. Stefan Bruder, 2018. "Inference for structural impulse responses in SVAR-GARCH models," ECON - Working Papers 281, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Niklas Ahlgren & Paul Catani, 2017. "Wild bootstrap tests for autocorrelation in vector autoregressive models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1189-1216, December.
    10. Ciesielska, Dorota & Kołtuniak, Marcin, 2017. "Outward foreign direct investments and home country’s economic growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 127-146.
    11. María Angélica Arbeláez & Roberto Steiner, 2009. "Volatilidad cambiaria en Colombia: cuantificación y determinantes," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 9073, Fedesarrollo.
    12. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Sarker, Tapan & Rao, Amar & Talan, Gaurav & Jain, Mansi, 2022. "Revisiting conventional and green finance spillover in post-COVID world: Evidence from robust econometric models," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Stock markets and the COVID-19 fractal contagion effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    14. Domingo Rodríguez Benavides & Ignacio Perrotini Hernández, 2019. "Las correlaciones dinámicas de contagio financiero:Estados Unidos y América Latina," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 151-168, Abril-Jun.
    15. Seiler, Volker, 2024. "The relationship between Chinese and FOB prices of rare earth elements – Evidence in the time and frequency domain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 160-179.
    16. Han, Chulwoo & Park, Frank C., 2022. "A geometric framework for covariance dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Jonas Mockus, 2010. "On simulation of optimal strategies and Nash equilibrium in the financial market context," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 129-143, September.
    18. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    19. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    20. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasas de cambio; inversionistas extranjeros; derivados; TES; modelos GARCH; Exchange rates; foreign investors; derivatives; TES; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.