IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2019-09.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fear of taxes

Author

Listed:
  • Leal-Ordoñez Julio C.
  • Mandujano Javier

Abstract

This paper documents that Mexican households anticipated the fiscal reform of 2014 several months before enacted. This change in expectations is documented using a novel source of information available in Google Trends, among other sources. It then analyzes the economic consequences of this change using a general equilibrium growth model with taxes and uncertainty. The model also considers the presence of generic distortions in the form of wedges in the first order conditions to isolate the effect of taxation. The paper provides an explanation for the unusual trajectories of investment and GDP of the Mexican economy around 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Leal-Ordoñez Julio C. & Mandujano Javier, 2019. "Fear of taxes," Working Papers 2019-09, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2019-09
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B808D529A-7396-9F03-7377-AA179737C5B8%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2012. "Capital Taxation During the U.S. Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1515-1550.
    2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    3. V. V. Chari & Pedro Teles & Juan Nicolini, 2016. "More on the Optimal Taxation of Capital," 2016 Meeting Papers 1364, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.
    5. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    6. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stylianos G. Gogos & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2017. "Rent Seeking Activities and Aggregate Economic Performance - The Case of Greece," Working Papers 201712, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Anagnostopoulos, Alexis & Cárceles-Poveda, Eva & Lin, Danmo, 2012. "Dividend and capital gains taxation under incomplete markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 599-611.
    3. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 16-44.
    4. C Niranjan Rao, 2008. "The Role of Intellectual Property Rights in Information and Communication Technologies," Working Papers id:1742, eSocialSciences.
    5. Üngör, Murat, 2014. "Some thought experiments on the changes in labor supply in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 265-272.
    6. Simona Cociuba & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2012. "Heterogeneity and Long-Run Changes in U.S. Hours and the Labor Wedge," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20124, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    7. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2004. "Optimal Response to a Demographic Shock," Working Papers 157, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Yannic Stucki & Jacqueline Thomet, 2021. "A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland’s 1990s stagnation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Maebayashi, Noritaka & Hori, Takeo & Futagami, Koichi, 2017. "Dynamic Analysis Of Reductions In Public Debt In An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1454-1483, September.
    10. Ek, Andreas, 2021. "Cross-country differences in preferences for leisure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    11. Kotamäki Mauri, 2017. "Laffer Curves and Home Production," Nordic Tax Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2017(1), pages 59-69, January.
    12. Simona E. Cociuba & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2008. "Driving forces of the Canadian economy: an accounting exercise," Globalization Institute Working Papers 06, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado, 2007. "Envy, leisure, and restrictions on working hours," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1286-1310, November.
    14. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial Crises and Total Factor Productivity: The Mexican Case," 2005 Meeting Papers 478, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Oliwia Komada & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2021. "Progressing towards efficiency: the role for labor tax progression in reforming social security," GRAPE Working Papers 57, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    16. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 20022014," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    17. Juan C. Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Productivity, taxes, and hours worked in Spain: 1970–2015," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 201-223, August.
    18. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    19. Roberto Ellery Jr. & Victor Gomes, 2014. "Fiscal Policy, Supply Shocks and Economic Expansion in Brazil from 2003 to 2007," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 53-75, June.
    20. André Silva, 2008. "Taxes and labor supply: Portugal, Europe, and the United States," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 7(2), pages 101-124, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; expectations; taxes; investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2019-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.