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Fear of taxes

Author

Listed:
  • Leal-Ordoñez Julio C.
  • Mandujano Javier

Abstract

This paper documents that Mexican households anticipated the fiscal reform of 2014 several months before enacted. This change in expectations is documented using a novel source of information available in Google Trends, among other sources. It then analyzes the economic consequences of this change using a general equilibrium growth model with taxes and uncertainty. The model also considers the presence of generic distortions in the form of wedges in the first order conditions to isolate the effect of taxation. The paper provides an explanation for the unusual trajectories of investment and GDP of the Mexican economy around 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Leal-Ordoñez Julio C. & Mandujano Javier, 2019. "Fear of taxes," Working Papers 2019-09, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2019-09
    as

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    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7B808D529A-7396-9F03-7377-AA179737C5B8%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2012. "Capital Taxation During the U.S. Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1515-1550.
    2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
    3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    4. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    5. V. V. Chari & Pedro Teles & Juan Nicolini, 2016. "More on the Optimal Taxation of Capital," 2016 Meeting Papers 1364, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; expectations; taxes; investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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