IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_642_07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Detecting long memory co-movements in macroeconomic time series

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluca Moretti

    (Banca d'Italia, Research Department)

Abstract

Cointegration analysis tests for the existence of a significant long-run equilibrium among some economic variables. Standard econometric procedures to test for cointegration have proven unreliable when the long-run relation among the variables is characterized by non-linearities and persistent fluctuations around the equilibrium. As a consequence, many intuitive economic relations are empirically rejected. In this paper we propose a simple approach to account for non-linearities in the cointegrating equilibrium and possible long memory fluctuations from such equilibrium. We show that our correction allows us to test robustly for the presence of cointegration both under the null and alternative hypotheses. We apply our procedure to the Johansen-Juselius PPP-UIP database, and unlike the standard case, we do not fail to reject the null of no cointegration.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Moretti, 2007. "Detecting long memory co-movements in macroeconomic time series," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 642, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_642_07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0642/en_tema_642.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2003. "Testing of Fractional Cointegration in Macroeconomic Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 517-529, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    2. Gianluca Moretti & Giulio Nicoletti, 2010. "Estimating DSGE models with unknown data persistence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 750, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burcu Kiran, 2011. "Fractional Cointegration Relationship between Oil Prices and Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis from G7 Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 177-189.
    2. Luis Gil-Alana, 2004. "Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1583-1589.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "The relationship between healthcare expenditure and disposable personal income in the US states: a fractional integration and cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 913-935, November.
    4. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Carlos Pestana Barros & Zhongfei Chen, 2016. "The persistence of air pollution in four mega-cities of China," NCID Working Papers 04/2016, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    6. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Coskun, Yener, 2020. "How do stocks in BRICS co-move with real estate stocks?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 93-101.
    7. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Olubusoye, Olusanya E., 2019. "How persistent and dynamic inter-dependent are pricing of Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies before and after 2017/18 crash?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    8. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2007. "Demand for Money: A Study in Testing Time Series for Long Memory and Nonlinearity," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 1-24.
    9. Juncal Cuñado & L.A. Gil-Alana & F. Pérez de Gracia, 2007. "Real convergence in some emerging countries: a fractionally integrated approach," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 73(3), pages 293-310.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-alana, 2014. "Youth Unemployment in Europe: Persistence and Macroeconomic Determinants," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(4), pages 581-591, December.
    11. Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Rojo, María Fátima Romero, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and stock market indices. Are they related?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    13. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne P駵in-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Nieves Carmona-González & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2024. "Consumer sentiments across G7 and BRICS economies: Are they related?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 323-344, June.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & José Javier de Dios Mazariegos & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2024. "Long-Run Linkages Between us Stock Prices and Cryptocurrencies: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3543-3553, December.
    16. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "The Feldstein--Horioka puzzle in South Africa: A fractional cointegration approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 978-991, October.
    17. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Xuan Vinh Vo & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Adeolu O. Adewuyi, 2022. "Modelling cryptocurrency high–low prices using fractional cointegrating VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 489-505, January.
    18. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Marinko Skare, 2018. "Testing the great decoupling: a long memory approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 801-820, November.
    19. Daiki Maki, 2013. "Detecting cointegration relationships under nonlinear models: Monte Carlo analysis and some applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 605-625, August.
    20. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Lorenzo Bermejo, 2024. "Private and public debt convergence: a fractional cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 161-183, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration analysis; long memory;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_642_07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.