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Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement

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  • Amedeo Argentiero
  • Michele Bagella
  • Francesco Busato

Abstract

This paper implements a methodology that exploits firms and households’ optimality conditions to measure money laundering for the Italian economy. This approach, first implemented by Ingram, Kocherlakota, and Savin (1997) to the household production sector, and by Busato, Chiarini and Di Maro (2006) for measuring the underground economy, allows to generate high frequency series for the money laundering using a theoretical two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated over the sample 1981:01-2001:04. The analysis of the generated series suggests two main results. First, money laundering accounts for approximately 12 percent of aggregate GDP; second, money laundering is more volatile than aggregate GDP, and it is negatively correlated with it.
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  • Amedeo Argentiero & Michele Bagella & Francesco Busato, 2008. "Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 341-359, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ejlwec:v:26:y:2008:i:3:p:341-359
    DOI: 10.1007/s10657-008-9074-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Loayza, Norman & Villa, Edgar & Misas, Martha, 2019. "Illicit activity and money laundering from an economic growth perspective: A model and an application to Colombia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 442-487.
    2. Unger Brigitte, 2009. "Money Laundering - A Newly Emerging Topic on the International Agenda," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 807-819, December.
    3. Slim, Sadri, 2015. "Un modelo Mundell-Fleming con economía ilegal y lavado de dinero [Modeling illegal economy and money laundering: a Mundell-Fleming framework]," MPRA Paper 64675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Raffaella Barone, 2018. "The Italian CCB Reform and Usury Credit Risk: A Quantitative Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 463-496, November.
    5. Tomas Williams & Pablo Slutzky & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "Drug Money and Bank Lending: The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Money Laundering Policies," Working Papers 2019-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, revised May 2020.
    6. Raffaella Barone & Domenico Delle Side & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Drug trafficking, money laundering and the business cycle: Does secular stagnation include crime?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 409-426, May.
    7. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Friedrich Schneider & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "Money Laundering as a Financial Sector Crime. A New Approach to Measurement, with an Application to Italy," Working papers 018, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    8. Bagella Michele & Busato Francesco & Argentiero Amedeo, 2009. "Money Laundering in a Microfounded Dynamic Model: Simulations for the U.S. and the EU-15 Economies," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 879-902, December.
    9. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2011. "Organized crime, money laundering and legal economy: theory and simulations," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 115-142, August.
    10. Raffaella Barone & Roy Cerqueti & Anna Quaranta, 2012. "Illegal finance and usurers behaviour," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 265-277, October.
    11. Gaetano Perone, 2018. "I costi della criminalità organizzata nel settore agroalimentare italiano," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(281), pages 37-66.
    12. Hernando Bayona-Rodríguez & Catherine Rodríguez & J. Sebastián Melo, 2017. "Financial inclusion of the poor and money laundering indicators: empirical evidence for Colombia," Documentos CEDE 15600, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    13. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro & Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "Corruption and money laundering: You scratch my back, i’ll scratch yours," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 318-342, February.
    14. Amedeo Argentiero & Carlo Andrea BOLLINO, 2013. "The Mmeasurement of Underground Economy: A Dynamic-Simulation Based Approach," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 123/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    15. Gnutzmann, Hinnerk & McCarthy, Killian J. & Unger, Brigitte, 2010. "Dancing with the devil: Country size and the incentive to tolerate money laundering," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 244-252, September.
    16. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Friedrich Schneider & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Money Laundering as a Crime in the Financial Sector: A New Approach to Quantitative Assessment, with an Application to Italy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1555-1590, December.
    17. Carmela D’Avino, 2023. "Money laundering and AML regulatory and judicial system regimes: investigation of FinCEN files," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 195-223, April.
    18. Pietro A. Bianchi & Antonio Marra & Donato Masciandaro & Nicola Pecchiari, 2017. "Is It Worth Having the Sopranos on Board? Corporate Governance Pollution and Organized Crime: The Case of Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1759, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money laundering; Two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model; Illegal economy; E26; E32; K40;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

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