IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_660_21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revisiting monetary policy objectives and strategies: international experience and challenges from the ELB

Author

Listed:
  • Martina Cecioni

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Adriana Grasso

    (ECB)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We review the experience of central banks in 12 advanced economies in formulating their price stability objectives during the last 20 years. All central banks under review target a small and positive inflation rate (typically 2%). In most cases, they set a point target, in some a range or a point with bands around it. Range and bands are more common among small open economies. We also conduct a model-based analysis of the macroeconomic performance of different monetary policy strategies when the policy rate is constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB). Under standard inflation targeting, inflation remains, on average, below target (disinflationary bias). ELB incidence and duration are higher the lower the target. A point inflation target performs better than a range, especially if compared to an asymmetric one with the focal point close to the ceiling. Makeup strategies (price level targeting and average inflation targeting) and asymmetric inflation targeting strategies, in which the central bank’s reaction to below-target inflation is stronger compared with the case of above-target inflation, reduce the disinflationary effects of the ELB and have better macroeconomic stabilization properties compared with standard inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Cecioni & Adriana Grasso & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2021. "Revisiting monetary policy objectives and strategies: international experience and challenges from the ELB," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_660_21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2021-0660/QEF_660_21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2021. "Hitting the elusive inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-122.
    2. Davide Debortoli & Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2020. "On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 141-170.
    3. Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan," FEDS Notes 2020-01-08-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Thomas M. Mertens & John C. Williams, 2019. "Monetary Policy Frameworks and the Effective Lower Bound on Interest Rates," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 427-432, May.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    6. Anna Samarina & Nikos Apokoritis, 2020. "Evolution of monetary policy frameworks in the post-crisis environment," Working Papers 664, DNB.
    7. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    8. Klaus Adam & Henning Weber, 2019. "Optimal Trend Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 702-737, February.
    9. Maih, Junior & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2021. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Burlon, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2018. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-53.
    12. Budianto, Flora & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Busetti, Fabio & Neri, Stefano & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    15. Marc Dordal i Carreras & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Lower Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 497-520, October.
    16. Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 317-396.
    17. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2015. "Optimal long-run inflation with occasionally binding financial constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 18-42.
    18. Marc Carreras & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," Working Papers id:11216, eSocialSciences.
    19. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Apel, Mikael & Claussen, Carl Andreas, 2017. "Inflation targets and intervals – an overview of the issues," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 1, pages 83-103.
    21. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    22. Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J Wilson, 2022. "Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2768-2805.
    23. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2019. "Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 421-426, May.
    24. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    25. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    26. Guy Debelle, 2018. "Twenty-five Years of Inflation Targeting in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    2. Eleni Argiri & Ifigeneia Skotida, 2021. "The 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem: an economy of forces," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 23-57, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    2. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Herve Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2019. "The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 173-255.
    3. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working Papers 22-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Andrade, Philippe & Galí, Jordi & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r★?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Busetti, Fabio & Neri, Stefano & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Jakab, Zoltan & Lindé, Jesper, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies for the European Central Bank," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2021. "Monetary Policy with a State-Dependent Inflation Target in a Behavioral Two-Country Monetary Union Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What should the inflation target be? Views from 600 economists," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022, Bank of Finland.
    9. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2024. "Output-inflation trade-offs and the optimal inflation rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2021. "Hitting the elusive inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-122.
    11. Günter Coenen & Carlos Montes‐Galdón & Frank Smets, 2023. "Effects of State‐Dependent Forward Guidance, Large‐Scale Asset Purchases, and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low‐Interest‐Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 825-858, June.
    12. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    13. Heinrichs, Katrin & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "Positive trend inflation and the Phillips curve – A tale of two slopes and various impulse responses," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 283-307.
    14. Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "Monetary policy strategies for the euro area: optimal rules in the presence of the ELB," Working Paper Series 2797, European Central Bank.
    15. Ambrocio, Gene & Ferrero, Andrea & Jokivuolle, Esa & Ristolainen, Kim, 2022. "What Should the Inflation Target Be? Views from 600 Economists," CEPR Discussion Papers 17289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    20. Adrian Penalver & Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Deflationary Bias of the ZLB and the FED’s Strategic Response," Working papers 843, Banque de France.
    21. Jerome H. Powell, 2019. "Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead : a speech at the 2019 SIEPR Economic Summit, Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford, California, March 8, 2019," Speech 1044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Haavio, Markus & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2021. "Monetary policy rules and the effective lower bound in the Euro area," Research Discussion Papers 5/2021, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central banking; monetary policy rules; effective lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_660_21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.