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Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Lower Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Dordal i Carreras

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720)

  • Olivier Coibion

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712
    National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720
    National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

  • Johannes Wieland

    (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138
    Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093)

Abstract

Countries rarely hit the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates, but when they do, these episodes tend to be very long-lived. These two features are difficult to incorporate jointly into macroeconomic models using typical representations of shock processes. We introduce a regime-switching representation of risk premium shocks into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to generate a realistic distribution of ZLB durations. We discuss what different calibrations of this model imply for optimal inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Dordal i Carreras & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero Lower Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 497-520, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:8:y:2016:p:497-520
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Proaño, Christian R. & Lojak, Benjamin, 2021. "Monetary Policy with a State-Dependent Inflation Target in a Behavioral Two-Country Monetary Union Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Gerke, Rafael & Giesen, Sebastian & Kienzler, Daniel, 2020. "Interest rate pegs and the reversal puzzle: On the role of anticipation," Discussion Papers 50/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    4. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Robert Kurtzman & David Zeke, 2020. "Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 94-126, October.
    6. Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 317-396.
    7. Szabolcs Deák & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Joseph Pearlman, 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1219, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño & Omar Rachedi, 2023. "Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 31282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Strobel, Johannes & Lee, Gabriel & Dorofeenko, Victor & Salyer, Kevin, 2019. "Time-Varying Risk Shocks and the Zero Lower Bound," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203491, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Tomohide Mineyama & Wataru Hirata & Kenji Nishizaki, 2019. "Inflation and Social Welfare in a New Keynesian Model: The Case of Japan and the U.S," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    11. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    12. Tomohide Mineyama, 2024. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 305-316, February.
    13. Martina Cecioni & Adriana Grasso & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2021. "Revisiting monetary policy objectives and strategies: international experience and challenges from the ELB," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    15. Robert Amano & Thomas Carter & Sylvain Leduc, 2019. "Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk," Working Paper Series 2019-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal inflation; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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