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A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard

Author

Listed:
  • Irma Alonso

    (Banco de España)

  • Luis Molina

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper presents a simple, transparent and model-free framework for monitoring the build-up of vulnerabilities in emerging economies that may affect financial stability in Spain through financial, foreign direct investment or trade linkages, or via global turbulences. The vulnerability dashboards proposed are based on risk percentiles for a set of 34 key indicators according to their historical and cross-section frequency distributions. The framework covers financial market variables, macroeconomic fundamentals –which are grouped into real, fiscal, banking and external variables– and institutional quality and political indicators. This methodology is a valuable complement to other existing tools such as the Basel credit-to-GDP gap and vulnerability indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2021. "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard," Occasional Papers 2111, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:2111
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/21/Files/do2111e.pdf
    File Function: First version, April 2021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Tobias Adrian & Dong He & Nellie Liang & Fabio M Natalucci, 2019. "A Monitoring Framework for Global Financial Stability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 19/06, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
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    7. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    8. Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
    9. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Mr. Dong He & Nellie Liang & Mr. Fabio M Natalucci, 2019. "A Monitoring Framework for Global Financial Stability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2019/006, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Roberto Chang, 2006. "Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 12448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    12. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. International Economics and Euro Area Department, 2021. "Report on the Latin American economy. First half of 2021. Outlook, vulnerabilities and policy space," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021.
    2. Carmen Broto & Mariya Melnychuk, 2022. "Structural risk indicators for the Spanish banking sector," Revista de Estabilidad Financiera, Banco de España, issue Otoño.
    3. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Departamento de Economía Internacional y Área del Euro, 2021. "Report on the Latin American Economy. Second half of 2021. Outlook, vulnerabilities and policy space," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2021.
    5. Carmen Broto & Mariya Melnychuk, 2022. "Structural risk indicators for the Spanish banking sector," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging economies; crisis; vulnerabilities; heat maps; risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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