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Nueva actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • Elena Fernández

    (Banco de España)

  • Eva Ortega

    (Banco de España)

  • Alberto Urtasun

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

El Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España (MTBE) constituye una herramienta fundamental para la elaboración de proyecciones a medio plazo de la economía española y para la cuantificación de los posibles efectos de distintas medidas de política económica o de perturbaciones de diversa índole. Dentro del proceso de continua mejora de este instrumento, en los últimos meses se ha procedido a una remodelación sustancial del mismo. Los cambios introducidos son tanto de actualización de la estimación, ampliando la muestra de datos hasta finales de 2008, como metodológicos, y afectan a todas las facetas del modelo. Además, se han incorporado un conjunto de variables explicativas que aproximan los efectos de la confianza y de las restricciones crediticias sobre las decisiones de gasto, y que permiten analizar de forma adecuada el período más reciente de la economía española.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Hurtado & Elena Fernández & Eva Ortega & Alberto Urtasun, 2011. "Nueva actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España," Occasional Papers 1106, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:1106
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/11/Fich/do1106.pdf
    File Function: First version, August 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ángel Estrada & José Luis Fernández & Esther Moral & Ana V. Regil, 2004. "A quarterly macroeconometric model of the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0413, Banco de España.
    2. Javier Andrés & Samuel Hurtado & Eva Ortega & Carlos Thomas, 2010. "Spain in the Euro: a general equilibrium analysis," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 67-95, March.
    3. Yianos Kontopoulos & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Government Fragmentation and Fiscal Policy Outcomes: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 81-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:bde:joures:v:09:y:2009:p:30 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    6. Eva Ortega & Eva Ferraz & Samuel Hurtado, 2007. "Actualización del modelo trimestral del Banco de España," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue JUN, pages 55-65, Junio.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Arturo Fraile, 2009. "La Encuesta sobre Préstamos Bancarios en España: contenido informativo sobre la evolución de los componentes del PIB," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue SEP, pages 85-94, Septiembr.
    9. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    10. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Ángel Estrada, 2006. "BEMOD: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy and the rest of the Euro area," Working Papers 0631, Banco de España.
    11. Ana Buisan & Esther Gordo, 1994. "Funciones de importación y exportación de la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(1), pages 165-192, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Hurtado & Pablo Manzano & Eva Ortega & Alberto Urtasun, 2014. "Update and re-estimation of the quarterly model of Banco de España (MTBE)," Occasional Papers 1403, Banco de España.
    2. Manuel Blanco Losada & Rafael Frutos Vívar & Elena López y Díaz-Delgado & Silvio Martínez Vicente, 2014. "La influencia de la riqueza financiera sobre el consumo privado. Análisis de la experiencia española durante la Gran Recesión," Working Papers 03/14, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spanish economy; macroeconometric model;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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