IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/507.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Shock Propagation in Firm Networks: evidence from government bank credit expansions

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo S. Cortes
  • Thiago Christiano Silva
  • Bernardus F. N. Van Doornik

Abstract

We study how bank credit shocks propagate through supplier-customer firm networks. We do so using administrative data that covers firm-to-firm transactions in Brazil around the debacle of Lehman Brothers. Using the counter-cyclical reaction of government-owned banks in Brazil after Lehman's failure as a policy experiment, we show that credit shocks originated in bank-firm relationships are transmitted throughout the network of suppliers and customers, with measurable consequences for firms' real outcomes and survival probability. A firm with direct and indirect access to government credit (through its customers or suppliers) observed a 12.5% greater survival probability, vis-à-vis 4% when the firm has only direct access. Critically, we uncover drawbacks of these interventions, including a persistent increased concentration in the market share of firms that benefited from government liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago Christiano Silva & Bernardus F. N. Van Doornik, 2019. "Credit Shock Propagation in Firm Networks: evidence from government bank credit expansions," Working Papers Series 507, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps507.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bonomo, Marco & Brito, Ricardo D. & Martins, Bruno, 2015. "The after crisis government-driven credit expansion in Brazil: A firm level analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 111-134.
    2. Viral V. Acharya & Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2013. "Aggregate Risk and the Choice between Cash and Lines of Credit," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 2059-2116, October.
    3. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    5. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.
    6. Patrick Bolton & Xavier Freixas & Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2016. "Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2643-2676.
    7. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Government Ownership of Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 265-301, February.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    9. De Haas, Ralph & Korniyenko, Yevgeniya & Pivovarsky, Alexander & Tsankova, Teodora, 2015. "Taming the herd? Foreign banks, the Vienna Initiative and crisis transmission," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 325-355.
    10. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2003. "Trade Credit, Financial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 353-374, February.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    12. Saki Bigio, 2013. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," 2013 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.
    14. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    15. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
    16. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    17. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2011. "Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, January.
    18. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S, 1997. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 495-505, September.
    19. Cull, Robert & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2013. "Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4861-4878.
    20. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2007. "Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1429-1460, 2007 12.
    21. Leila Aghabarari & Andre Guettler & Mahvish Naeem & Bernardus Van Doornik, 2021. "Is there help indeed, if there is help in need? The case of credit unions during the global financial crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1215-1233, July.
    22. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    23. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    24. Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Montoriol-Garriga, Judit, 2013. "Firms as liquidity providers: Evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 272-291.
    25. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    26. Federico Cingano & Francesco Manaresi & Enrico Sette, 2016. "Does Credit Crunch Investment Down? New Evidence on the Real Effects of the Bank-Lending Channel," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2737-2773.
    27. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.
    28. Mariassunta Giannetti & Mike Burkart & Tore Ellingsen, 2011. "What You Sell Is What You Lend? Explaining Trade Credit Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(4), pages 1261-1298.
    29. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    30. Daniel Carvalho, 2014. "The Real Effects of Government-Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 577-609, April.
    31. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    33. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
    34. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    35. Beck, Thorsten & Crivelli, Juan Miguel & Summerhill, William, 2005. "State bank transformation in Brazil - choices and consequences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8-9), pages 2223-2257, August.
    36. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    37. Coleman, Nicholas & Feler, Leo, 2015. "Bank ownership, lending, and local economic performance during the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 50-66.
    38. Carvalho, Daniel & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Matos, Pedro, 2015. "Lending Relationships and the Effect of Bank Distress: Evidence from the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 1165-1197, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Florian Unger, 2021. "Credit frictions, selection into external finance and gains from trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1206-1251, November.
    2. Huremovic, Kenan & Jiménez, Gabriel & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," EconStor Preprints 222281, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Crosignani, Matteo & Macchiavelli, Marco & Silva, André F., 2023. "Pirates without borders: The propagation of cyberattacks through firms’ supply chains," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 432-448.
    4. Garcia, Alexandre Schwinden & Gonzaga, André Lucas Moreira, 2024. "How credit unions affect the profitability of Brazilian commercial banks?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 190-209.
    5. Filipe Correia & Gustavo S. Cortes & Thiago C. Silva, 2021. "Is Corporate Credit Risk Propagated to Employees?," Working Papers Series 551, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Matteo Crosignani & Lina Han & Marco Macchiavelli & André F. Silva, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls," Staff Reports 1096, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Schroeder, Christofer & Hviid, Simon Juul, 2024. "Real effects of credit supply shocks: evidence from Danish banks, firms, and workers," Working Paper Series 3001, European Central Bank.
    8. Martins, Theo Cotrim & Schiozer, Rafael & Linardi, Fernando de Menezes, 2023. "The information content from lending relationships across the supply chain," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Thiago Christiano Silva & Fabiano José Muniz & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2022. "Indirect and direct effects of the subprime crisis on the real sector: labor market migration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1407-1438, March.
    10. Thiago Christiano Silva & Carlos Eduardo de Almeida & Solange Maria Guerra & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2024. "COVID-19 and Credit Reallocation: evidence from bank branch lending in Brazil," Working Papers Series 601, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Thiago Christiano Silva & Carlos Eduardo de Almeida, 2024. "COVID-19 and Supply Chain Disruptions: a novel perspective using a network of payments in Brazil," Working Papers Series 595, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Norden, Lars & Mesquita, Daniel & Wang, Weichao, 2021. "COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Mauricio Medeiros Jr & Bernardus Van Doornik, 2021. "Human Capital and Startup Financing," Working Papers Series 546, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    3. Dwenger, Nadja & Fossen, Frank & Simmler, Martin, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis. Evidence from individual firm-bank relationships in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Noth, Felix & Ossandon Busch, Matias, 2021. "Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects: Micro-level evidence from Brazil," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Lončarski, Igor & Marinč, Matej, 2020. "The political economy of relationship banking," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Nadja Dwenger & Frank M Fossen & Martin Simmler, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis: evidence from individual firm¨Cbank relationships in Germany," Working Papers 1516, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    7. Jonathon Adams‐Kane & Julián A. Caballero & Jamus Jerome Lim, 2017. "Foreign Bank Behavior during Financial Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 351-392, March.
    8. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 698-750.
    10. Randall Morck & M. Deniz Yavuz & Bernard Yeung, 2019. "State-Run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5914-5932, December.
    11. Thorsten Beck & Samuel Da-Rocha-Lopes & André F Silva & Francesca Cornelli, 2021. "Sharing the Pain? Credit Supply and Real Effects of Bank Bail-ins [High wage workers and high wage firms]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 1747-1788.
    12. Dwenger, Nadja & Fossen, Frank M. & Simmler, Martin, 2020. "Firms’ financial and real responses to credit supply shocks: Evidence from firm-bank relationships in Germany," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    13. Coleman, Nicholas & Feler, Leo, 2015. "Bank ownership, lending, and local economic performance during the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 50-66.
    14. Finaldi Russo, Paolo & Nigro, Valentina & Pastorelli, Sabrina, 2024. "Bank lending to small firms: Metamorphosis of a financing model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 13-31.
    15. Ersahin, Nuri & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Huang, Ruidi, 2024. "Trade credit and the stability of supply chains," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    16. Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi & Rappoport-Redondo, Veronica, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Alfaro, Laura & García-Santana, Manuel & Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2021. "On the direct and indirect real effects of credit supply shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 895-921.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.
    19. Stijn Claessens, 2017. "Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1513-1555.
    20. Olivier De Jonghe & Hans Dewachter & Klaas Mulier & Steven Ongena & Glenn Schepens, 2020. "Some Borrowers Are More Equal than Others: Bank Funding Shocks and Credit Reallocation [A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-43.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.