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Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation

Author

Listed:
  • Thibaut Duprey
  • Timothy Grieder
  • Dylan Hogg

Abstract

Over the past several years, the Bank for International Settlements has noted that Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap has widened and is above thresholds indicating future banking stress. In this note we take a closer look at the subcomponents of credit and find that (i) excluding non-financial government enterprises narrows the credit-to-GDP gap to well below worrisome thresholds and (ii) excluding borrowings between interrelated corporations (i.e., focusing only on borrowing through banks or financial markets) significantly decreases the level of the credit to GDP ratio and modestly widens the gap. We also review the literature and discuss the benefits and limitations of using the credit-to-GDP gap as a measure of vulnerabilities in the Canadian financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibaut Duprey & Timothy Grieder & Dylan Hogg, 2017. "Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation," Staff Analytical Notes 17-25, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-25
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    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/san2017-25.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Rochelle M. Edge & Ralf R. Meisenzahl, 2011. "The unreliability of credit-to-GDP ratio gaps in real-time: Implications for countercyclical capital buffers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    10. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Lee-Poy, 2018. "Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-34, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Financial stability; Monetary and financial indicators; Recent economic and financial developments; Sectoral balance sheet;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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