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Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices

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Listed:
  • Thibaut Duprey
  • Artur Kotlicki
  • Daniel E. Rigobon
  • Philip Schnattinger

Abstract

We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. First, we introduce a new establishment-level dataset derived from Google Places. We confirm the importance of temporary closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on establishment reviews also suggests that preventing productive businesses from permanently exiting could support employment. Second, we embed these findings into a model of heterogeneous firm dynamics. By maintaining productive capacity during downturns, temporary closures initially support employment and subsequently reduce price pressures. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Thibaut Duprey & Artur Kotlicki & Daniel E. Rigobon & Philip Schnattinger, 2024. "Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices," Staff Working Papers 24-51, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-51
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank research; Firm dynamics; Fiscal policy; Inflation and prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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