IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v137y2022ics0165188922000409.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cyclicality of entry and exit: The role of imperfect information

Author

Listed:
  • Woo, Jinhee

Abstract

In the U.S. manufacturing sector, the entry margin is strongly procyclical, whereas the exit margin is acyclical. This study attempts to explain the entry-exit margin asymmetry. It introduces imperfect information in an industry equilibrium model and finds that potential entrants cannot disentangle aggregate productivity from their own productivity, inducing a signal extraction problem. With imperfect information on the aggregate productivity, potential entrants underestimate variations in equilibrium factor prices and overestimate variations in the value of entering. This amplified entry margin, combined with a reasonable amount of general equilibrium forces, mute cyclical variations in the exit margin. With the proposed mechanism, the model economy generates 28% of the observed variations in the entrants’ productivity. Notably, several testable implications of the model economy are consistent with the properties of the U.S. data.

Suggested Citation

  • Woo, Jinhee, 2022. "The cyclicality of entry and exit: The role of imperfect information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:137:y:2022:i:c:s0165188922000409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188922000409
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104335?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, January.
    2. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Yoonsoo Lee, 2015. "Cross Sectoral Variation in the Volatility of Plant Level Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2018. "A model of entry, exit, and plant-level dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-25.
    4. Anderson, Evan W. & McGrattan, Ellen R. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-252, Elsevier.
    5. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    6. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    7. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2015. "Entry and exit of manufacturing plants over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 20-27.
    8. House, Christopher L., 2014. "Fixed costs and long-lived investments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 86-100.
    9. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    10. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Business Cycles in a General Equilibrium Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 529-541, July.
    11. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    12. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    13. Yoonsoo Lee, 2005. "The importance of reallocations in cyclical productivity and returns to scale: evidence from plant-level data," Working Papers (Old Series) 0509, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2005. "Modeling and Measuring Organization Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1026-1053, October.
    15. Tian, Can, 2018. "Firm-level entry and exit dynamics over the business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 298-326.
    16. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Namsuk Kim, 2006. "Gross Job Flows for the U.S. Manufacturing Sector: Measurement from the Longitudinal Research Database," Working Papers 06-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    17. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    18. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-938, October.
    19. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "The Failure of Free Entry," NBER Working Papers 26001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    21. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2015. "Productivity and employment dynamics of US manufacturing plants," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 190-193.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Nikolova, Milena & Tyurina, Elena, 2022. "COVID-19 and entrepreneurship entry and exit: Opportunity amidst adversity," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gian Luca Clementi & Berardino Palazzo, 2016. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-41, July.
    2. Jinhee Woo, 2016. "The Cyclicality of Entry and Exit: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Imperfect Information," 2016 Meeting Papers 613, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2018. "A model of entry, exit, and plant-level dynamics over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-25.
    4. Tian, Can, 2022. "Learning and firm dynamics in a stochastic equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Patrick Macnamara, 2015. "Limited Re-Entry And Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 1-40, December.
    6. Ia Vardishvili, 2020. "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Tian, Can, 2015. "Riskiness, endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 227-249.
    8. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    9. Pavol Majher, 2015. "Firm entry and exit, investment irreversibility, and business cycle dynamics," Vienna Economics Papers 1513, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    10. Kaas, Leo, 2023. "Block-recursive equilibria in heterogeneous-agent models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Zanetti, 2017. "Endogenous Turnover and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 263-279, October.
    12. Sungki Hong, 2017. "Customer Capital, Markup Cyclicality, and Amplification," Working Papers 2017-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Yoonsoo Lee & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2008. "Entry, Exit, and Plant-Level Dynamics over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 08-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2021. "The original sin: Firms’ dynamics and the life-cycle consequences of economic conditions at birth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Pavol Majher, 2015. "Firm entry and exit, investment irreversibility, and business cycle dynamics," Vienna Economics Papers vie1513, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    16. Noh‐Sun Kwark & Eunseong Ma, 2021. "Entrepreneurship And Income Distribution Dynamics: Why Is The Income Share Of Top Income Earners Acyclical Over The Business Cycle?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 321-356, February.
    17. In Hwan Jo & Tatsuro Senga, 2019. "Aggregate Consequences of Credit Subsidy Policies: Firm Dynamics and Misallocation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 68-93, April.
    18. Jinhee Woo, 2020. "Policy Implications of Investment Rate Distributions in the Korean Manufacturing Sector," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 36, pages 445-480.
    19. Dean Corbae & Pablo D’Erasmo, 2021. "Reorganization or Liquidation: Bankruptcy Choice and Firm Dynamics [Does Industry-wide distress Affect Defaulted Firms? Evidence from Creditor Recoveries]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2239-2274.
    20. Joao Ayres & Gajendran Raveendranathan, 2018. "The Firm Dynamics of Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-16, McMaster University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entry and exit; Plant dynamics; Business cycles; Imperfect information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:137:y:2022:i:c:s0165188922000409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.