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Estimating the Demand for Settlement Balances in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System

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  • Nellie Zhang

Abstract

This paper applies a static model of an interest rate corridor to the Canadian data, and estimates the aggregate demand for central-bank settlement balances in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). The empirical specification controls for various calendar effects that have been shown to cause fluctuations in LVTS payment flows. The analysis takes into account the downward divergence of the overnight interest rate from the target rate, which has been persistent since 2005. The results suggest that a target of $3 billion for LVTS settlement balances does not seem excessive during the time period when Canadian monetary policy was operating at the effective lower bound (ELB). Specifically, the model projects that, if the consistent downward divergence of overnight interest rate is taken into account, then on average $2.405 billion of LVTS settlement balances would probably have been sufficient to achieve the goal of keeping the overnight interest rate at or very close to the lower bound of the corridor. However, by targeting a slightly higher level, the Bank of Canada could be 95% certain that the overnight interest rate would on average not exceed its policy rate at the lower bound of the corridor. In addition, the estimation shows that the point elasticity of overnight interest rate is around 0.17 when the daily level of settlement balances is targeted at $3 billion under the ELB framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Nellie Zhang, 2012. "Estimating the Demand for Settlement Balances in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System," Staff Working Papers 12-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tong Mu & He Yi, 2017. "Topology of Complex Networks and Demand of Intraday Liquidity: Based on the Real-Time Gross Settlement System," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2(49), pages 50-61, December.
    2. Steve Ambler & Jeremy Kronick, 2018. "Navigating Turbulence: Canadian Monetary Policy Since 2004," C.D. Howe Institute Policy Studies, C.D. Howe Institute, number 47_2018, January.
    3. Morten L Bech & Cyril Monnet, 2013. "The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Overnight Interbank Market," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Lilley & Mark Manning (ed.),Liquidity and Funding Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Toni Gravelle & Ron Morrow & Jonathan Witmer, 2023. "Reviewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Implementation System: Does the Evolving Environment Support Maintaining a Floor System?," Discussion Papers 2023-10, Bank of Canada.
    5. Nellie (Yinan) Zhang, 2019. "Estimating the demand for settlement balances in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System: How much is too much?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 735-762, May.
    6. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2017. "What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada?," Discussion Papers 17-9, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy implementation; Payment clearing and settlement systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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