IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocadp/20-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • James Bootsma
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Argyn Toktamyssov

Abstract

This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. This represents a decline of 50 basis points relative to the range judged at the time of the Bank’s last neutral rate update in April 2019. Roughly half of this decline reflects an assessment of conditions prevailing in late 2019 and is thus unrelated to the COVID-19 pandemic. The other half reflects the balance of several key channels through which the COVID 19 shock is likely to influence US interest rates over the years ahead, including its impacts on potential output growth, inequality, demand for safe assets and the level of US government debt. Results from the new models specifically point to upward pressure from higher government debt being more than offset by downward pressure from lower potential output growth, higher inequality and heightened demand for safe assets.

Suggested Citation

  • James Bootsma & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Christopher Hajzler & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2020. "2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment," Discussion Papers 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:20-12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-12/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-12.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2018. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-22, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Gianluca Violante, 2020. "The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 181-204, August.
    3. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    4. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    6. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    7. Sergio Galletta & Tommaso Giommoni, 2022. "The Effect of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Income Inequality: Evidence from Italy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 187-203, March.
    8. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2007. "The Demand for Treasury Debt," NBER Working Papers 12881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "Saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 147-159.
    11. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.
    12. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    13. Congressional Budget Office, 2020. "An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030," Reports 56517, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "Le taux neutre au Canada : mise à jour de 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11fr, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dmitry Matveev & Julien McDonald-Guimond & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2020-24, Bank of Canada.
    3. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & José Dorich, 2019. "The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-11, Bank of Canada.
    4. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Olivieri, Elisabetta & Triviza, Eleftheria, 2024. "Eating habits, food consumption, and health: The role of early life experiences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    5. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2015. "Saving and the long shadow of macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 147-159.
    8. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia, 2019. "Macroeconomics and natural rates: some reflections on Pasinetti’s fair rate of interest," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(2), pages 139-165, December.
    9. Viral V. Acharya & Timothy Johnson & Suresh Sundaresan & Steven Zheng, 2020. "The Value of a Cure: An Asset Pricing Perspective," NBER Working Papers 28127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    11. Andries, Marianne & Bianchi, Milo & Huynh, Karen & Pouget, Sébastien, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," TSE Working Papers 1561, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    13. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.
    14. James J. Choi & Adriana Z. Robertson, 2020. "What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse's Mouth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1965-2020, August.
    15. Melanie Koch & Thomas Scheiber, 2022. "Household savings in CESEE: expectations, experiences and common predictors," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/22, pages 29-54.
    16. Marianne Andries & Milo Bianchi & Karen Huynh & Sébastien Pouget, 2024. "Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence," Post-Print hal-04680777, HAL.
    17. Buesa, Alejandro & Pérez, Javier J. & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2021. "Awareness of pandemics and the impact of COVID-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    18. Alexander Dietrich & Edward S. Knotek & Michael McMain & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2021. "Expected Post-Pandemic Consumption and Scarred Expectations from COVID-19," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(11), pages 1-8, April.
    19. Laudenbach, Christine & Loos, Benjamin & Pirschel, Jenny & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "The trading response of individual investors to local bankruptcies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 928-953.
    20. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Mehrotra, Neil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World," CEPR Discussion Papers 15282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Interest rates; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:20-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.