IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocsan/21-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J. Carter
  • Xin Scott Chen
  • Ali Jaffery
  • Christopher Hajzler
  • Jonathan Lachaine
  • Peter Shannon
  • Subrata Sarker
  • Graeme Westwood
  • Beiling Yan

Abstract

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Christopher Hajzler & Jonathan Lachaine & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker & Graeme Westwood & Beiling Yan, 2021. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/04/staff-analytical-note-2021-5/
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/san2021-5.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roine, Jesper & Vlachos, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2009. "The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 974-988, August.
    2. Xin Scott Chen & Ali Jaffery & Guillaume Nolin & Karim Salhab & Peter Shannon & Subrata Sarker, 2020. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020," Discussion Papers 2020-10, Bank of Canada.
    3. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.
    4. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13, Bank of Canada.
    5. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Dany Brouillette & Guyllaume Faucher & Martin Kuncl & Austin McWhirter & Youngmin Park, 2021. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update," Staff Analytical Notes 2021-6, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. James Bootsma & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Christopher Hajzler & Argyn Toktamyssov, 2020. "2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment," Discussion Papers 2020-12, Bank of Canada.
    3. Guyllaume Faucher & Christopher Hajzler & Martin Kuncl & Dmitry Matveev & Youngmin Park & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-3, Bank of Canada.
    4. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2018. "The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States," Papers 1806.08278, arXiv.org.
    5. Chletsos Michael & Roupakias Stelios, 2020. "The effect of military spending on income inequality: evidence from NATO countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1305-1337, March.
    6. Steinberg, Daniel, 2017. "Resource shocks and human capital stocks – Brain drain or brain gain?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 250-268.
    7. Foellmi, Reto & Martínez, Isabel Z., 2014. "Volatile Top Income Shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the Evolution Between 1981 and 2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 10006, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Campbell, Douglas L. & Lusher, Lester, 2019. "The impact of real exchange rate shocks on manufacturing workers: An autopsy from the MORG," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-28.
    9. Sylvain Petit, 2017. "International trade in services and inequalities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1069-1075, August.
    10. Kumar Debasis Dutta & Mallika Saha, 2023. "Role of governance in the nexus between financial development and sustainable development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1181-1215, August.
    11. Remi Bazillier & Boris Najman, 2017. "Labour and Financial Crises: Is Labour Paying the Price of the Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(1), pages 55-76, March.
    12. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    13. Block, Joern H. & Hirschmann, Mirko & Kranz, Tobias & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Public family firms and economic inequality across societies," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    14. Palagi, Elisa & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Gaffard, Jean-Luc, 2023. "An agent-based model of trickle-up growth and income inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    15. Andreas Peichl & Nico Pestel & Sebastian Siegloch, 2013. "The politicians’ wage gap: insights from German members of parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 653-676, September.
    16. Gunnar Rietz & Dan Johansson & Mikael Stenkula, 2015. "Swedish Labor Income Taxation (1862–2013)," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Magnus Henrekson & Mikael Stenkula (ed.), Swedish Taxation, chapter 0, pages 35-122, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Advani, Arun & Koenig, Felix & Pessina, Lorenzo & Summers, Andy, 2020. "Importing Inequality: Immigration and the Top 1 Percent," IZA Discussion Papers 13731, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Subir Lall & Ms. Florence Jaumotte, 2008. "Rising Income Inequality: Technology, or Trade and Financial Globalization?," IMF Working Papers 2008/185, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2016. "Political capitalism: The interaction between income inequality, economic freedom and democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 115-132.
    20. Roberto Iacono & Elisa Palagi, 2020. "Still the lands of equality? On the heterogeneity of individual factor income shares in the Nordics," LEM Papers Series 2020/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:21-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.