IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocadp/09-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Gervais
  • Ilan Kolet

Abstract

The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies. Moreover, nearly half of all global oil production, and roughly 75 per cent of proven reserves, are accounted for by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this paper, the authors assess the implications of recent developments for the future supply of oil. They find that (i) the OPEC cuts announced in December 2008 could provide important support for prices in the coming year, and (ii) low prices have depressed, and may continue to depress, oil infrastructure investment, and thus could amplify existing supply constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet, 2009. "The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?," Discussion Papers 09-9, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:09-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/dp09-9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calista Cheung & Sylvie Morin, 2007. "The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 181-224, July-Dece.
    2. Richard Alm & Stephen P. A. Brown & Raghav Virmani, 2008. "Crude awakening: behind the surge in oil prices," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(may).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ron Alquist and Olivier Gervais, 2013. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1349-1363.
    2. Filip Novotný, 2012. "The Link Between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(2), pages 220-232.
    3. Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet & René Lalonde, 2010. "A Larger Slice of a Growing Pie: the Role of Emerging Asia in Forecasting Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 75-95, January-J.
    4. Atanu Ghoshray & Madhavi Pundit, 2021. "Economic growth in China and its impact on international commodity prices," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2776-2789, April.
    5. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Dwight S. Jackson, 2010. "The Dynamics of Bank Spreads in the Jamaican Banking Sector: an Empirical Assessment," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-J.
    8. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2023. "What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    9. Wang, Tian & Wang, Cangfeng, 2019. "The spillover effects of China's industrial growth on price changes of base metal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 375-384.
    10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," Department of Economics, Working Papers 072, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    12. René Lalonde & Philipp Maier & Dirk Muir, 2009. "Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis," Discussion Papers 09-3, Bank of Canada.
    13. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    14. Fu, Xiaolan & Kaplinsky, Raphael & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "The Impact of China on Low and Middle Income Countries’ Export Prices in Industrial-Country Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1483-1496.
    15. Bürgi Bonanomi, Elisabeth & Elsig, Manfred & Espa, Ilaria, 2015. "The Commodity Sector and Related Governance Challenges from a Sustainable Development Perspective: The Example of Switzerland Current Research Gaps," Papers 865, World Trade Institute.
    16. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Cesar Calderon & Luc Christiaensen & David Evans & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota & Mapi Buitano, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, April 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 21736, The World Bank Group.
    17. Brendan Coates & Nghi Luu, 2012. "China's emergence in global commodity markets," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 1, pages 1-30, May.
    18. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    19. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," IIE, Working Papers 072, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    20. Ajit R. Joshi & Debashis Acharya, 2011. "Commodity Prices and Domestic Inflation in India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 3(2), pages 223-246, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Inflation and prices; International topics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:09-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.