Assessing the extent, the evolution, and the sources of inequality of opportunity in Sierra Leone and The Gambia

This paper investigates inequality of opportunity in Sierra Leone and The Gambia, focusing on income and literacy dimensions. Utilizing an ex-ante parametric normative framework combined with regression tree machine learning techniques, the study examines trends in income, consumption, and literacy to elucidate inequality patterns. A detailed Shapley decomposition analysis identifies and quantifies the key factors driving inequality in these domains. A novel aspect of this research is the cohort analysis of literacy, which structures cohorts based on significant historical events in each country. Findings indicate that educational opportunities are more equitably distributed among younger cohorts, signaling a shift toward increased equity. Furthermore, targeted policies such as Sierra Leone's Bunumbu Project and initiatives to reduce school fees for girls in The Gambia have significantly enhanced literacy rates among these cohorts, contributing to a reduction in the urban-rural divide. Despite these improvements, the analysis highlights that gender disparities persist, underscoring the need for continued focus on gender-inclusive policies.