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Drug Trafficking, Money Laundering And The Business Cycle: Does Secular Stagnation Include Crime?

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  • Raffaella Barone
  • Domenico Delle Side
  • Donato Masciandaro

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyze theoretically and empirically the impact the macroeconomic cycle has on the accumulation of capital by organized crime, using estimates for the global drug market. So far the economic literature has neglected the relationships existing between illegal markets, money laundering, and the business cycle. We propose a dynamic model where the business cycle influences the criminal economy via two different channels. On the one side, illegal markets grow at variable rates, depending on the health of the legal economy. Secondly, a pass-through effect can exist, since the business cycle affects the legal markets which criminal operators use to launder their revenues. Furthermore, we analyze the consequences of a “saturation effect” limiting maximum accumulation of illegal capital. We find that overall illegal capital is affected by the business cycle through a capital multiplier; in addition to this, the dynamics of interest rates in financial markets can influence such multiplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaella Barone & Domenico Delle Side & Donato Masciandaro, 2017. "Drug Trafficking, Money Laundering And The Business Cycle: Does Secular Stagnation Include Crime?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1747, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp1747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Money Laundering And Corruption: Birds Of A Feather Flock Together," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19112, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2019. "Cryptocurrency or usury? Crime and alternative money laundering techniques," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 233-254, April.
    3. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro, 2017. "Crime, Money Laundering, And Credit Markets: Can Usury Exist At The Zero Lower Bound?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1761, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Raffaella Barone, 2018. "The Italian CCB Reform and Usury Credit Risk: A Quantitative Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 463-496, November.
    5. Carlo Capuano & Massimiliano Giacalone, 2018. "Measuring Organized Crime: Statistical Indicators and Economics Aspects," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro & Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "Corruption and money laundering: You scratch my back, i’ll scratch yours," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 318-342, February.

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