IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/azt/cemmap/03-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Marginal effects for probit and tobit with endogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Kirill Evdokimov
  • Ilze Kalnina
  • Andrei Zeleneev

Abstract

When evaluating partial effects, it is important to distinguish between structural endogeneity and measurement errors. In contrast to linear models, these two sources of endogeneity affect partial effects differently in nonlinear models. We study this issue focusing on the Instrumental Variable (IV) Probit and Tobit models. We show that even when a valid IV is available, failing to differentiate between the two types of endogeneity can lead to either under- or over-estimation of the partial effects. We develop simple estimators of the bounds on the partial effects and provide easy to implement confidence intervals that correctly account for both types of endogeneity. We illustrate the methods in a Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical application.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Evdokimov & Ilze Kalnina & Andrei Zeleneev, 2025. "Marginal effects for probit and tobit with endogeneity," CeMMAP working papers 03/25, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:03/25
    DOI: 10.47004/wp.cem.2025.0325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cemmap.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/CWP0325-Marginal-effects-for-probit-and-tobit-with-endogeneity.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.47004/wp.cem.2025.0325?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney K. Newey, 2009. "Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1481-1512, September.
    2. Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November.
    3. Smith, Richard J & Blundell, Richard W, 1986. "An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 679-685, May.
    4. Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
    5. Hahn, Jinyong & Ridder, Geert, 2017. "Instrumental variable estimation of nonlinear models with nonclassical measurement error using control variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 238-250.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kirill S. Evdokimov & Ilze Kalnina & Andrei Zeleneev, 2023. "Marginal Effects for Probit and Tobit with Endogeneity," Papers 2306.14862, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    2. Jean-Paul Azam & Kartika Bhatia, 2017. "Provoking insurgency in a federal state: theory and application to India," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 183-210, March.
    3. Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David G. & Peng, Chao, 2008. "Dancing with the Dragon Heads: Enforcement, Innovations and Efficiency of Contracts between Agricultural Processors and Farmers in China," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6144, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Chesher, Andrew, 2013. "Semiparametric Structural Models Of Binary Response: Shape Restrictions And Partial Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 231-266, April.
    5. Kim Kyoo il & Petrin Amil, 2022. "A Generalized Non-Parametric Instrumental Variable-Control Function Approach to Estimation in Nonlinear Settings," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 91-125, January.
    6. Anna Piil Damm, 2009. "Ethnic Enclaves and Immigrant Labor Market Outcomes: Quasi-Experimental Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 281-314, April.
    7. Andrei Zeleneev & Kirill Evdokimov, 2023. "Simple estimation of semiparametric models with measurement errors," CeMMAP working papers 10/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Kirill S. Evdokimov & Andrei Zeleneev, 2023. "Simple Estimation of Semiparametric Models with Measurement Errors," Papers 2306.14311, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    9. Wied, Dominik, 2024. "Semiparametric distribution regression with instruments and monotonicity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Joseph G. Altonji & Hidehiko Ichimura & Taisuke Otsu, 2012. "Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models With Limited Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1701-1719, July.
    11. Rothe, Christoph, 2009. "Semiparametric estimation of binary response models with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 51-64, November.
    12. Bhargava, Alok, 2003. "Family planning, gender differences and infant mortality: evidence from Uttar Pradesh, India," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 225-240, January.
    13. Franz Hackl & Martin Halla & Gerald J. Pruckner, 2007. "Volunteering and Income – The Fallacy of the Good Samaritan?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 77-104, February.
    14. Pallab Ghosh & Kevin Grier & Jaeho Kim, 2021. "Heterogeneous endogeneity," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 847-886, April.
    15. Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2011. "Housing credit and female labour supply: assessing the evidence from Greece," Working Papers 141, Bank of Greece.
    16. Chernozhukov, Victor & Fernández-Val, Iván & Kowalski, Amanda E., 2015. "Quantile regression with censoring and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 201-221.
    17. Roy Cerqueti & Fabio Sabatini & Marco Ventura, 2019. "Civic capital and support for the welfare state," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 53(2), pages 313-336, August.
    18. Jörg Schwiebert, 2015. "Estimation and interpretation of a Heckman selection model with endogenous covariates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 675-703, September.
    19. Vella, Francis & Verbeek, Marno, 1999. "Two-step estimation of panel data models with censored endogenous variables and selection bias," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 239-263, June.
    20. Tristan Auvray & Olivier Brossard, 2013. "French connection: interlocking directorates and the ownership-control nexus in an insider governance system," Working Papers hal-00842582, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:azt:cemmap:03/25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dermot Watson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.