IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/avg/wpaper/en15573.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Colombia cope with a Global Low Carbon transition?

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine GODIN
  • Devrim YILMAZ
  • Jhan ANDRADE
  • Santiago BARBOSA
  • Diego GUEVARA
  • Gustavo HERNANDEZ
  • Leonardo ROJAS

Abstract

This paper aims to understand the long-term consequences for the Colombian economy of a global low-carbon transition. The paper proposes an empirical Stock-Flow Consistent model for Colombia, encompassing relevant dynamics for the economy: details regarding the trade balance such as fossil fuel exports or propensities to import out of consumption, intermediate goods or capital goods, dependency to international financial flows to cover a trade balance deficit, and more generally financial feedback loops for all institutional sectors. We envisage different scenarios regarding fossil fuel exports and show the dramatic impacts that Colombia could face in the case of a rapid decline in such exports. We then consider policy responses consisting in industrial policies to diversify the export base and show they can help mitigate the Colombian vulnerabilities but only after a certain period of time indicating the urgency of implementing such policies in Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine GODIN & Devrim YILMAZ & Jhan ANDRADE & Santiago BARBOSA & Diego GUEVARA & Gustavo HERNANDEZ & Leonardo ROJAS, 2023. "Can Colombia cope with a Global Low Carbon transition?," Working Paper 433ec0f8-625e-434c-bf44-3, Agence française de développement.
    • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.afd.fr/sites/afd/files/2023-06-07-29-19/Can%20Colombia%20cope%20with%20a%20Global%20Low%20Carbon%20transition.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charpe,Matthieu & Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Semmler,Willi, 2015. "Financial Assets, Debt and Liquidity Crises," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107546660, October.
    3. Andrés González & Lavan Mahadeva & Juan D. Prada & Diego Rodríguez, 2011. "Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs: Patacon Model Description," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 29(66), pages 222-245, December.
    4. Peter Flaschel & Gangolf Groh & Christian Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2008. "Topics in Applied Macrodynamic Theory," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, number 978-3-540-72542-8, March.
    5. Alberto Botta & Antoine Godin & Marco Missaglia, 2016. "Finance, foreign (direct) investment and dutch disease: the case of Colombia," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 265-289, August.
    6. Ximena del Carpio & José A. Cuesta & Maurice D. Kugler & Gustavo Hernández & Gabriel Piraquive, 2022. "What Effects Could Global Value Chain and Digital Infrastructure Development Policies Have on Poverty and Inequality after COVID-19?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-29, January.
    7. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Trsek, Stefan, 2021. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 191-207.
    9. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2015. "Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(1), pages 157-187.
    10. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    11. Bovari, Emmanuel & Giraud, Gaël & Mc Isaac, Florent, 2018. "Coping With Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macrodynamics of Global Warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 383-398.
    12. Pérez Caldentey, Esteban, 2015. "Una coyuntura propicia para reflexionar sobre los espacios para el debate y el diálogo entre el (neo)estructuralismo y las corrientes heterodoxas," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 39622, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Antoine GODIN & Paul HADJI-LAZARO, 2020. "Demand-induced transition risks: A systemic approach applied to South Africa," Working Paper b86d90ca-ea16-401e-9fac-4, Agence française de développement.
    3. Gourdel, Régis & Monasterolo, Irene & Dunz, Nepomuk & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Parisi, Laura, 2024. "The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Alessandro Moro, 2021. "Can capital controls promote green investments in developing countries?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1348, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Yannis Dafermos & Maria Nikolaidi, 2019. "Fiscal policy and ecological sustainability: A post-Keynesian perspective," Working Papers PKWP1912, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Canelli, Rosa & Fontana, Giuseppe & Realfonzo, Riccardo & Passarella, Marco Veronese, 2024. "Energy crisis, economic growth and public finance in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks? A dynamic macrofinancial analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Curcio, Domenico & Gianfrancesco, Igor & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "Climate change and financial systemic risk: Evidence from US banks and insurers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Carnevali, Emilio & Deleidi, Matteo & Pariboni, Riccardo & Veronese Passarella, Marco, 2021. "Cross-border financial flows and global warming in a two-area ecological SFC model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Irene Monasterolo, 2020. "Embedding Finance in the Macroeconomics of Climate Change: Research Challenges and Opportunities Ahead," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(04), pages 25-32, November.
    11. Yannis Dafermos & Maria Nikolaidi, 2019. "Fiscal policy and ecological sustainability," FMM Working Paper 52-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2019. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: Which role for macroprudential policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 25-37.
    13. Irene Monasterolo & Nepomuk Dunz & Andrea Mazzocchetti & Régis Gourdel, 2022. "Derisking the low-carbon transition: investors’ reaction to climate policies, decarbonization and distributive effects," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 31-71, April.
    14. Florian Böser & Chiara Colesanti Senni, 2020. "Emission-based Interest Rates and the Transition to a Low-carbon Economy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 20/337, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    15. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    16. Lagoarde-Ségot, Thomas & Revelli, Christophe, 2023. "Ecological money and finance. Introducing ecological risk-free assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    19. Emmanuel Bovari & Oskar Lecuyer & Florent Mc Isaac, 2018. "Debt and damages: What are the chances of staying under the 2C warming threshold?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 155, pages 92-108.
    20. Odongo, Maureen & Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Kageha, Caren & Wamalwa, Peter Simiyu, 2023. "Sustainable financing, climate change risks and bank stability in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 71, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombie;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AFD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afdgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.