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Predicting the National Football League potential of college quarterbacks

Author

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  • Niven Winchester

    (School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology)

  • J. Dean Craig

    (Department of Economics, University of Colorado)

Abstract

We use college football data and, in some cases, ESPN scout grades to estimate (1) attributes that are likely to result in a college quarterback being selected by a National Football League (NFL) team, and (2) the performance of rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. We find that both college passing and rushing ability are significantly correlated with NFL selection, with strong passing ability the most important trait for making the NFL. Among quarterbacks selected for the NFL, college rushing ability is significantly correlated with NFL performance, but college passing ability is not. College rushing ability is also a significant determinant of NFL performance when scout grades are included as an explanatory variable. We conclude that rushing prowess is the key determinant of the NFL success of quarterbacks with sufficient passing skills to warrant NFL selection. Our findings also indicate that scouts systematically undervalue rushing ability when assessing the NFL potential of college quarterbacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Niven Winchester & J. Dean Craig, 2020. "Predicting the National Football League potential of college quarterbacks," Working Papers 2020-11, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:aut:wpaper:202011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeremy Rosen & Alexandre Olbrecht, 2020. "Data‐Driven Drafting: Applying Econometrics To Employ Quarterbacks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 313-326, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. David Berri & Alex Farnell & Robert Simmons, 2023. "The determinants of Black quarterback pay in the National Football League," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 1491-1503, April.
    3. Joshua D. Pitts & Brent A. Evans, 2023. "New contracts and dismissal threats from highly drafted rookies: What motivates NFL quarterbacks?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 4-16, January.

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    Keywords

    OR in sports; Selection; Multivariate regression analysis;
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