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Evaluating an alternative draft pick allocation policy to reduce ‘tanking’ in the Australian Football League

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  • Lenten, Liam J.A.
  • Smith, Aaron C.T.
  • Boys, Noel

Abstract

This article considers an adjustment to the method of determining the order of draft picks in the Australian Football League (AFL). Rather than pure reverse order based on the end-of-season ladder (standings), an alternative draft-pick allocation (henceforth called ‘ADPA’) policy is proposed and evaluated. It holds that the draft-pick order rule shall give the top pick the team eliminated first (i.e. after fewest matches played) from the finals series (playoffs), and the remainder in order of elimination. Employing a quasi-natural experiment using data obtained from a sample of 2288 regular-season games from 1997 to 2009, the ADPA policy produced an estimated 21.7% improvement in an already-eliminated team's probability of winning late-season matches. A review of the business case underpinning the ADPA reveals a series of benefits for the AFL. In addition to improving fans’ late-season engagement, the policy would offer a fairer system of draft distributions that would augment league equalisation and enhance the AFL's integrity principles.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenten, Liam J.A. & Smith, Aaron C.T. & Boys, Noel, 2018. "Evaluating an alternative draft pick allocation policy to reduce ‘tanking’ in the Australian Football League," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 315-320.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:267:y:2018:i:1:p:315-320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeff Borland & Mark Chicu & Robert D. Macdonald, 2009. "Do Teams Always Lose to Win? Performance Incentives and the Player Draft in the Australian Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(5), pages 451-484, October.
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    9. S E Stern, 2009. "An adjusted Duckworth–Lewis target in shortened limited overs cricket matches," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 236-251, February.
    10. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2009. "Towards a New Dynamic Measure of Competitive Balance: A Study Applied to Australia’s Two Major Professional ‘Football’ Leagues," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 407-428, December.
    11. Stephan Lenor & Liam J. A. Lenten & Jordi McKenzie, 2016. "Rivalry Effects and Unbalanced Schedule Optimisation in the Australian Football League," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 49(1), pages 43-69, August.
    12. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2009. "Unobserved Components in Competitive Balance and Match Attendances in the Australian Football League, 1945–2005: Where is all the Action Happening?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 181-196, June.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Craig, J. Dean & Winchester, Niven, 2021. "Predicting the national football league potential of college quarterbacks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 733-743.
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    5. Jemuel Chandrakumaran, 2020. "How Did the AFL National Draft Mitigate Perverse Incentives?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(2), pages 139-151, February.
    6. Martin B. Schmidt, 2024. "On the Incentive Structure of Tournaments: Evidence from the National Basketball Association’s Draft Lottery," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 400-429, June.
    7. Csató, László, 2022. "Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 717-726.

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