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What shakes the FX tree? Understanding currency dominance, dependence and dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Neil F. Johnson

    (Oxford University and HSBC Bank)

  • Mark McDonald

    (Oxford University and HSBC Bank)

  • Omer Suleman

    (Oxford University and HSBC Bank)

  • Stacy Williams

    (Oxford University and HSBC Bank)

  • Sam Howison

    (Oxford University and HSBC Bank)

Abstract

There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies which may change in time. In practice, traders talk of particular currencies being 'in play' during a particular period of time -- yet there is no established machinery for detecting such important information. Here we apply the construction of Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs) to the FX market, and show that the MST can capture important features of the global FX dynamics. Moreover, we show that the MST can help identify momentarily dominant and dependent currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil F. Johnson & Mark McDonald & Omer Suleman & Stacy Williams & Sam Howison, 2005. "What shakes the FX tree? Understanding currency dominance, dependence and dynamics," Papers physics/0503014, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0503014
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0503014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dorogovtsev, S.N. & Mendes, J.F.F., 2003. "Evolution of Networks: From Biological Nets to the Internet and WWW," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198515906.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2012. "Pruning a minimum spanning tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2678-2711.
    2. Anna Denkowska & Stanis{l}aw Wanat, 2019. "A Dynamic MST- deltaCovar Model Of Systemic Risk In The European Insurance Sector," Papers 1912.05641, arXiv.org.
    3. Anna Denkowska & Stanisław Wanat, 2022. "Linkages and systemic risk in the European insurance sector. New evidence based on Minimum Spanning Trees," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 123-136, June.
    4. Naylor, Michael J. & Rose, Lawrence C. & Moyle, Brendan J., 2007. "Topology of foreign exchange markets using hierarchical structure methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 199-208.
    5. Aslam, Faheem & Mohmand, Yasir Tariq & Aziz, Saqib & Ouenniche, Jamal, 2020. "A complex networks based analysis of jump risk in equity returns: An evidence using intraday movements from Pakistan stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Anna Denkowska & Stanis{l}aw Wanat, 2019. "Linkages and systemic risk in the European insurance sector: Some new evidence based on dynamic spanning trees," Papers 1908.01142, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    7. Leonidas Sandoval Junior, 2011. "Pruning a Minimum Spanning Tree," Papers 1109.0642, arXiv.org.

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