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Prediction model averaging estimator

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  • Xie, Tian

Abstract

This paper proposes a new estimator for least squares model averaging. We propose computing the model weights by minimizing a prediction model averaging (PMA) criterion. We prove that the PMA estimator is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible mean squared error. In simulation experiments the PMA estimator is shown to have good finite sample performance. As an empirical illustration, we demonstrate that using PMA to account for model uncertainty can lead to large gains in box office prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Tian, 2015. "Prediction model averaging estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 5-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:131:y:2015:i:c:p:5-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.03.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2010. "Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 277-283, June.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E. & Racine, Jeffrey S., 2012. "Jackknife model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 38-46.
    3. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1980. "Selection of Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 331-354, June.
    4. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Steven F. Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2022. "The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 189-210, January.
    2. Shi, Pengfei & Zhang, Xinyu & Zhong, Wei, 2024. "Estimating conditional average treatment effects with heteroscedasticity by model averaging and matching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    3. Jianchun Fang & Wanshan Wu & Zhou Lu & Eunho Cho, 2019. "Using Baidu Index To Nowcast Mobile Phone Sales In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(01), pages 83-96, March.
    4. Steven Lehrer & Tian Xie, 2017. "Box Office Buzz: Does Social Media Data Steal the Show from Model Uncertainty When Forecasting for Hollywood?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 749-755, December.
    5. Liao, Jun & Zou, Guohua, 2020. "Corrected Mallows criterion for model averaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Lehrer, Steven & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Social media sentiment, model uncertainty, and volatility forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Zhao, Shangwei & Xie, Tian & Ai, Xin & Yang, Guangren & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Correcting sample selection bias with model averaging for consumer demand forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Wenchao Xu & Xinyu Zhang, 2024. "On Asymptotic Optimality of Least Squares Model Averaging When True Model Is Included," Papers 2411.09258, arXiv.org.
    9. Zhao, Shangwei & Zhang, Xinyu & Gao, Yichen, 2016. "Model averaging with averaging covariance matrix," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 214-217.
    10. Ziwen Gao & Jiahui Zou & Xinyu Zhang & Yanyuan Ma, 2023. "Frequentist model averaging for envelope models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 50(3), pages 1325-1364, September.
    11. Xie, Tian, 2017. "Heteroscedasticity-robust model screening: A useful toolkit for model averaging in big data analytics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 119-122.
    12. Qiu, Yue & Wang, Zongrun & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting Bitcoin realized volatility by exploiting measurement error under model uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 179-201.
    13. Tian Xie, 2019. "Forecast Bitcoin Volatility with Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Alena Skolkova, 2023. "Model Averaging with Ridge Regularization," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp758, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model averaging; Convex optimization; Social media big data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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