IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2410.13100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of social factors on loan delinquency in microfinance

Author

Listed:
  • Cedric H. A. Koffi
  • Viani Biatat Djeundje
  • Olivier Menoukeu Pamen

Abstract

This paper develops multistate models to analyse loan delinquency in the microfinance sector, using data from Ghana. The models are designed to account for both partial repayments and the short repayment durations typical in microfinance, focusing on estimating the probability of transitions between two or three repayment states, including delinquency. Social variables, such as religious and cultural factors, were found to play a statistically significant role in influencing repayment behavior, highlighting the impact of societal dynamics on financial outcomes. We explored both time-independent and time-dependent frailty models to capture unobserved heterogeneity. Overall, the findings emphasize the importance of social factors in delinquency but suggest limited predictive gains from incorporating frailties into multistate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Cedric H. A. Koffi & Viani Biatat Djeundje & Olivier Menoukeu Pamen, 2024. "Impact of social factors on loan delinquency in microfinance," Papers 2410.13100, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.13100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.13100
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Silinskas & M. Ranta & T.-A. Wilska, 2021. "Financial Behaviour Under Economic Strain in Different Age Groups: Predictors and Change Across 20 Years," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 235-257, June.
    2. Beatriz Armendáriz & Jonathan Morduch, 2010. "The Economics of Microfinance, Second Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262014106, April.
    3. Mavhungu Abel Mafukata & Willie Dhlandhlara & Grace Kancheya, 2015. "Socio-Demographic Factors Affecting Social Capital Development, Continuity and Sustainability Among Microfinance Adopting Households in Nyanga, Zimbabwe," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 70-79, March.
    4. Steven Abrams & Andreas Wienke & Niel Hens, 2018. "Modelling time varying heterogeneity in recurrent infection processes: an application to serological data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(3), pages 687-704, April.
    5. Yoonsang Kim & Young-Ku Choi & Sherry Emery, 2013. "Logistic Regression With Multiple Random Effects: A Simulation Study of Estimation Methods and Statistical Packages," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(3), pages 171-182, August.
    6. Emma Tomalin & Jörg Haustein & Shabaana Kidy, 2019. "Religion and the Sustainable Development Goals," The Review of Faith & International Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 102-118, April.
    7. Djeundje, Viani Biatat & Crook, Jonathan, 2018. "Incorporating heterogeneity and macroeconomic variables into multi-state delinquency models for credit cards," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 697-709.
    8. Sigrist, Fabio & Hirnschall, Christoph, 2019. "Grabit: Gradient tree-boosted Tobit models for default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 177-192.
    9. Lore Dirick & Gerda Claeskens & Bart Baesens, 2017. "Time to default in credit scoring using survival analysis: a benchmark study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(6), pages 652-665, June.
    10. Joanna Ledgerwood, 1998. "Microfinance Handbook: An Institutional and Financial Perspective," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12383.
    11. Kiridaran Kanagaretnam & Gerald Lobo & Chong Wang, 2015. "Religiosity and Earnings Management: International Evidence from the Banking Industry," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 277-296, December.
    12. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan & Lindgren, Finn, 2023. "Joint models for longitudinal and discrete survival data in credit scoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1457-1473.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dirick, Lore & Claeskens, Gerda & Vasnev, Andrey & Baesens, Bart, 2022. "A hierarchical mixture cure model with unobserved heterogeneity for credit risk," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 39-55.
    2. Victor Medina-Olivares & Finn Lindgren & Raffaella Calabrese & Jonathan Crook, 2023. "Joint model for longitudinal and spatio-temporal survival data," Papers 2311.04008, arXiv.org.
    3. Bocchio, Cecilia & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic scenarios on recurrent delinquency: A stress testing framework of multi-state models for mortgages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1655-1677.
    4. Lucia Dalla Pellegrina & Giorgio Di Maio & Paolo Landoni & Emanuele Rusinà, 2021. "Money management and entrepreneurial training in microfinance: impact on beneficiaries and institutions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1049-1085, October.
    5. Bhuiyan, Muhammad Faress & Ivlevs, Artjoms, 2019. "Micro-entrepreneurship and subjective well-being: Evidence from rural Bangladesh," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 625-645.
    6. Fall, François Seck & Tchakoute Tchuigoua, Hubert & Vanhems, Anne & Simar, Léopold, 2022. "Investigating the unobserved heterogeneity effect on microfinance social efficiency," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    7. de Quidt, Jonathan & Fetzer, Thiemo & Ghatak, Maitreesh, 2018. "Commercialization and the decline of joint liability microcredit," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 209-225.
    8. Hao Wang & Anthony Bellotti & Rong Qu & Ruibin Bai, 2024. "Discrete-Time Survival Models with Neural Networks for Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Credit Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, February.
    9. kemdong nicodeme TENEKEU, 2020. "Les déterminants de la pérennité des institutions de microfinance au Cameroun," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 11(1), pages 122-138, June.
    10. Aga, B.K. & Tesfay, G.B., 2018. "How Should Rural Financial Cooperatives Be Best Organized? Evidence from Ethiopia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277735, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Dehejia, Rajeev & Montgomery, Heather & Morduch, Jonathan, 2012. "Do interest rates matter? Credit demand in the Dhaka slums," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 437-449.
    12. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    13. Islam, Asadul & Nguyen, Chau & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Does microfinance change informal lending in village economies? Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 141-156.
    14. D’Espallier, Bert & Goedecke, Jann & Hudon, Marek & Mersland, Roy, 2017. "From NGOs to Banks: Does Institutional Transformation Alter the Business Model of Microfinance Institutions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 19-33.
    15. Goran Calic & Moren Lévesque & Anton Shevchenko, 2024. "On why women-owned businesses take more time to secure microloans," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 917-938, October.
    16. Knar Khachatryan & Vardan Baghdasaryan & Valentina Hartarska, 2018. "Is the model loans-plus-savings better for microfinance in ECA? A PSM comparison," Working Paper c5a69366-4231-479c-879d-c, European Microfinance Network.
    17. Hisaki Kono & Yasuyuki Sawada & Abu S. Shonchoy, 2016. "DVD-based Distance-learning Program for University Entrance Exams: Experimental Evidence from Rural Bangladesh," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1027, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    18. Charles S. Tundui & Hawa P. Tundui, 2018. "Examining the effect of child labour in the profitability of women owned enterprises: a case of microcredit supported enterprises in Tanzania," Journal of Global Entrepreneurship Research, Springer;UNESCO Chair in Entrepreneurship, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Ogochukwu Edith Nkamnebe & Abimbola Oluwaseun Oladipo, 2024. "Impact of Microcredit on Income and Social Status of Rural Women Microentrepreneurs in Southeast Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(8), pages 3521-3532, August.
    20. de Oliveira Leite, Rodrigo & dos Santos Mendes, Layla & de Lacerda Moreira, Rafael, 2020. "Profit status of microfinance institutions and incentives for earnings management," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.13100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.