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Stock Price Prediction and Traditional Models: An Approach to Achieve Short-, Medium- and Long-Term Goals

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  • Opeyemi Sheu Alamu
  • Md Kamrul Siam

Abstract

A comparative analysis of deep learning models and traditional statistical methods for stock price prediction uses data from the Nigerian stock exchange. Historical data, including daily prices and trading volumes, are employed to implement models such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA). These models are assessed over three-time horizons: short-term (1 year), medium-term (2.5 years), and long-term (5 years), with performance measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The stability of the time series is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Results reveal that deep learning models, particularly LSTM, outperform traditional methods by capturing complex, nonlinear patterns in the data, resulting in more accurate predictions. However, these models require greater computational resources and offer less interpretability than traditional approaches. The findings highlight the potential of deep learning for improving financial forecasting and investment strategies. Future research could incorporate external factors such as social media sentiment and economic indicators, refine model architectures, and explore real-time applications to enhance prediction accuracy and scalability.

Suggested Citation

  • Opeyemi Sheu Alamu & Md Kamrul Siam, 2024. "Stock Price Prediction and Traditional Models: An Approach to Achieve Short-, Medium- and Long-Term Goals," Papers 2410.07220, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2410.07220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zexin Hu & Yiqi Zhao & Matloob Khushi, 2021. "A Survey of Forex and Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning," Papers 2103.09750, arXiv.org.
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