IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2408.09669.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Contemporaneous and lagged spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Yan-Hong Yang
  • Ying-Hui Shao
  • Wei-Xing Zhou

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the dynamic spillovers among the crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agricultural markets. Adopting a novel $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings. The overall TCI dynamics have been mainly dominated by contemporaneous dynamics rather than the lagged dynamics. We also find climate change has significant spillovers to other markets. Moreover, there are heterogeneous spillover effects among agricultural markets. Specially, corn is the biggest risk contributor to this system, while barley is the major risk receiver of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Contemporaneous and lagged spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and climate change," Papers 2408.09669, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2408.09669
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.09669
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Volatility spillovers and hedging strategies between impact investing and agricultural commodities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Gabauer, David, 2023. "Contemporaneous and lagged R2 decomposed connectedness approach: New evidence from the energy futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Gong, Xu & Shi, Rong & Xu, Jun & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Analyzing spillover effects between carbon and fossil energy markets from a time-varying perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    7. Liu, Jian & Julaiti, Jiansuer & Gou, Shangde, 2024. "Decomposing interconnectedness: A study of cryptocurrency spillover effects in global financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    9. Pham, Linh & Kamal, Javed Bin, 2024. "Blessings or curse: How do media climate change concerns affect commodity tail risk spillovers?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Guo, Kun & Li, Yichong & Zhang, Yunhan & Ji, Qiang & Zhao, Wanli, 2023. "How are climate risk shocks connected to agricultural markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    13. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Goodell, John W. & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Gozgor, Giray, 2024. "Impact of climate risk shocks on global food and agricultural markets: A multiscale and tail connectedness analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Jin, Yi & Zhao, Hang & Bu, Lin & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, climate risk and energy markets: A dynamic spillover analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Zhao, Shou-Yu & Song, Huai-Bing & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Li, Sai-Ping, 2024. "Dynamic volatility spillover relationships between the Chinese carbon and international energy markets from extreme climate shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 626-645.
    17. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Chen, Yiyang & Gong, Xu, 2024. "Stress from attention: The relationship between climate change attention and crude oil markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    19. Mohammad S. Masnadi & Adam R. Brandt, 2017. "Climate impacts of oil extraction increase significantly with oilfield age," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 551-556, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Quantile connectedness across BRICS and international grain futures markets: Insights from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Papers 2409.19307, arXiv.org.
    2. Chiappari, Mattia & Scotti, Francesco & Flori, Andrea, 2024. "Market responses to spillovers in the energy commodity markets: Evaluating short-term vs. long-term effects and business-as-usual vs. distressed phases," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    3. Polat, Onur & Ozcan, Burcu & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Atılgan, Emre & Özün, Alper, 2024. "Fintech: A Conduit for sustainability and renewable energy? Evidence from R2 connectedness analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Xue, Huidan & Du, Yuxuan, 2024. "Spatial Price Transmission and Dynamic Volatility Spillovers in the Global Grain Markets," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Connectivity and spillover during crises: Highlighting the prominent and growing role of green energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Braz, Tercio & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2024. "Mapping the landscape of energy markets research: A bibliometric analysis and predictive assessment using machine learning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Billah, Mabruk & Hadhri, Sinda & Balli, Faruk & Sahabuddin, Mohammad, 2024. "Exploring the dynamic links, implications for hedging and investment strategies between Sukuk and commodity market volatility: Evidence from country level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 350-371.
    9. Xuewei Zhou & Zisheng Ouyang & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2024. "Time-Varying Multilayer Networks Analysis of Frequency Connectedness in Commodity Futures Markets," Working Papers 202422, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Fei & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying, 2024. "Tail connectedness: Measuring the volatility connectedness network of equity markets during crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Wu, Guo & Hu, Guoheng, 2024. "Asymmetric spillovers and resilience in physical and financial assets amid climate policy uncertainties: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    12. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Youtao Xiang & Sumuya Borjigin, 2024. "High–low volatility spillover network between economic policy uncertainty and commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(8), pages 1295-1319, August.
    14. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Vo, Duc Hong & Tran, Minh Phuoc-Bao, 2024. "Volatility spillovers between energy and agriculture markets during the ongoing food & energy crisis: Does uncertainty from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    17. Khan, Nasir & Mejri, Sami & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "How do global commodities react to increasing geopolitical risks? New insights into the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Busra Agan, 2024. "On the connectedness of commodity markets: A critical and selective survey of empirical studies and bibliometric analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 97-136, February.
    19. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Chen, Jinyu & Liang, Zhipeng & Ding, Qian & Liu, Zhenhua, 2022. "Quantile connectedness between energy, metal, and carbon markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2408.09669. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.