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Geopolitical risk, climate risk and energy markets: A dynamic spillover analysis

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  • Jin, Yi
  • Zhao, Hang
  • Bu, Lin
  • Zhang, Dayong

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the dynamic spillover among geopolitical risk, climate risk, and energy markets from an international perspective. Based on data from 13 countries between December 2002 and February 2022, we firstly confirm an overall connectedness among energy future prices, i.e., crude oil, heating oil and natural gas, with geopolitical risk and climate risk. And then, the dynamic analysis indicates that the spillover effect is frequency dependent and more pronounced at a high frequency. Furthermore, the net dynamic spillover results show that the two major shocks of geopolitical risk associated with Russia on energy markets appear in 2014 and 2022. These effects are also more pronounced at a high frequency, indicating that the conflicts can impose an immediate effect on energy markets. The significant connectedness among energy, geopolitical risk and climate risk remains unchanged after accounting for public attention, adding control variables and using the alternative measures of geopolitical risk and climate risk.

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  • Jin, Yi & Zhao, Hang & Bu, Lin & Zhang, Dayong, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, climate risk and energy markets: A dynamic spillover analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:87:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923001138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102597
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    Cited by:

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    7. Tedeschi, Marco & Foglia, Matteo & Bouri, Elie & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2024. "How does climate policy uncertainty affect financial markets? Evidence from Europe," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    8. Dong, Kangyin & Yang, Senmiao & Wang, Jianda & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Does Geopolitical Risk Accelerate Climate Vulnerability? New Evidence from the European Green Deal," Working Papers 15-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Gao, Wang & Wei, Jiajia & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Haizhen, 2024. "Does climate policy uncertainty exacerbate extreme risk spillovers between green economy and energy metals?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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    15. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2024. "Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Contemporaneous and lagged spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agriculture futures markets: Evidence from the $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach," Papers 2408.09669, arXiv.org.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Climate risk; Energy markets; Spillover; Frequency analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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