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Stylized facts in Web3

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  • Wei-Ru Chen
  • A. Christian Silva
  • Shen-Ning Tung

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of the Web3 ecosystem, comparing various Web3 tokens with traditional financial assets across multiple time scales. We examine probability distributions, tail behaviors, and other key stylized facts of the returns for a diverse range of tokens, including decentralized exchanges, liquidity pools, and centralized exchanges. Despite functional differences, most tokens exhibit well-established empirical facts, including unconditional probability density of returns with heavy tails gradually becoming Gaussian and volatility clustering. Furthermore, we compare assets traded on centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges, finding that DEXs exhibit similar stylized facts despite different trading mechanisms and often divergent long-term performance. We propose that this similarity is attributable to arbitrageurs striving to maintain similar centralized and decentralized prices. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics of Web3 tokens and the relationship between CEX and DEX markets, with important implications for risk management, pricing models, and portfolio construction in the rapidly evolving DeFi landscape. These results add to the growing body of literature on cryptocurrency markets and provide insights that can guide the development of more accurate models for DeFi markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-Ru Chen & A. Christian Silva & Shen-Ning Tung, 2024. "Stylized facts in Web3," Papers 2408.07653, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2408.07653
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gilles Zumbach, 2009. "Time reversal invariance in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 505-515.
    2. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    3. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 418-445, February.
    4. Joseph Najnudel & Shen-Ning Tung & Kazutoshi Yamazaki & Ju-Yi Yen, 2024. "An arbitrage driven price dynamics of Automated Market Makers in the presence of fees," Papers 2401.01526, arXiv.org.
    5. Silva, A. Christian & Prange, Richard E. & Yakovenko, Victor M., 2004. "Exponential distribution of financial returns at mesoscopic time lags: a new stylized fact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 227-235.
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