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Convex ordering for stochastic control: the swing contracts case

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  • Gilles Pag`es
  • Christian Yeo

Abstract

We investigate propagation of convexity and convex ordering on a typical stochastic optimal control problem, namely the pricing of \q{\emph{Take-or-Pay}} swing option, a financial derivative product commonly traded on energy markets. The dynamics of the underlying asset is modelled by an \emph{ARCH} model with convex coefficients. We prove that the value function associated to the stochastic optimal control problem is a convex function of the underlying asset price. We also introduce a domination criterion offering insights into the monotonicity of the value function with respect to parameters of the underlying \emph{ARCH} coefficients. We particularly focus on the one-dimensional setting where, by means of Stein's formula and regularization techniques, we show that the convexity assumption for the \emph{ARCH} coefficients can be relaxed with a semi-convexity assumption. To validate the results presented in this paper, we also conduct numerical illustrations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Pag`es & Christian Yeo, 2024. "Convex ordering for stochastic control: the swing contracts case," Papers 2406.07464, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2406.07464
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin Jourdain & Gilles Pagès, 2022. "Convex Order, Quantization and Monotone Approximations of ARCH Models," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 2480-2517, December.
    2. Vincent Lemaire & Gilles Pag`es & Christian Yeo, 2023. "Swing contract pricing: with and without Neural Networks," Papers 2306.03822, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    3. Petter Bjerksund & Gunnar Stensland & Frank Vagstad, 2011. "Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 203-228.
    4. Bergenthum Jan & Rüschendorf Ludger, 2008. "Comparison results for path-dependent options," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 53-72, March.
    5. Vlad Bally & Gilles Pagès & Jacques Printems, 2005. "A Quantization Tree Method For Pricing And Hedging Multidimensional American Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 119-168, January.
    6. Olivier Bardou & Sandrine Bouthemy & Gilles Pages, 2009. "Optimal Quantization for the Pricing of Swing Options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 183-217.
    7. Olivier Bardou & Sandrine Bouthemy & Gilles Pagès, 2010. "When Are Swing Options Bang-Bang?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(06), pages 867-899.
    8. Burgert, Christian & Ruschendorf, Ludger, 2006. "Consistent risk measures for portfolio vectors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 289-297, April.
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