IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2310.12807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A note on the logical inconsistency of the Hotelling Rule: A Revisit from the System's Analysis Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolay Khabarov
  • Alexey Smirnov
  • Michael Obersteiner

Abstract

The "Hotelling rule" (HR) called to be "the fundamental principle of the economics of exhaustible resources" has a logical deficiency which was never paid a sufficient attention to. This deficiency should be taken into account before attempting to explain discrepancies between the price prediction provided by the HR and historically observed prices. Our analysis is focused on the HR in its original form, we do not touch upon other aspects such as varying extraction costs and other ways of upgrading the original model underlying the Hotelling rule. We conclude that HR can not be derived from the simple models as it was claimed, therefore it should be understood as an assumption on its own, and not as a rule derived from other more basic assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay Khabarov & Alexey Smirnov & Michael Obersteiner, 2023. "A note on the logical inconsistency of the Hotelling Rule: A Revisit from the System's Analysis Perspective," Papers 2310.12807, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.12807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.12807
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    2. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Fisher, Anthony C, 1981. "Hotelling's "Economics of Exhaustible Resources": Fifty Years Later," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 65-73, March.
    2. Seyhan, Demet & Weikard, Hans-Peter & van Ierland, Ekko, 2012. "An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-108.
    3. Franco, Marco P.V. & Gaspard, Marion & Mueller, Thomas, 2019. "Time discounting in Harold Hotelling's approach to natural resource economics: The unsolved ethical question," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 52-60.
    4. Galos Krzysztof & Nieć Marek & Saługa Piotr W. & Uberman Robert, 2015. "The basic problems of mineral resources valuation methodologies within the framework of System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounts," Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi / Mineral Resources Management, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 5-20, December.
    5. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    6. Agnani, Betty & Gutierrez, Maria-Jose & Iza, Amaia, 2005. "Growth in overlapping generation economies with non-renewable resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 387-407, September.
    7. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2018. "Understanding oil scarcity through drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 261-269.
    8. Yves Achdou & Charles Bertucci & Jean-Michel Lasry & Pierre-Louis Lions & Antoine Rostand & José A. Scheinkman, 2022. "A class of short-term models for the oil industry that accounts for speculative oil storage," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 631-669, July.
    9. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2013. "Learning and price volatility in duopoly models of resource depletion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 806-820.
    10. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Green Paradox," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 281-300, June.
    11. Beatriz Gaitan S. & Richard S.J. Tol & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2006. "The Hotelling’s Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 213-238, Izmir University of Economics.
    12. Bahel, Eric, 2011. "Optimal management of strategic reserves of nonrenewable natural resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 267-280, May.
    13. Blose, Laurence E. & Shieh, Joseph C. P., 1995. "The impact of gold price on the value of gold mining stock," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 125-139.
    14. Barreto, Raul A., 2018. "Fossil fuels, alternative energy and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 196-220.
    15. V.Martinet & L. Doyen, 2003. "Sustainable management of an exhaustible resource:a viable control model," THEMA Working Papers 2003-36, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    16. Merrill, Ryan K. & Orlando, Anthony W., 2020. "Oil at risk: Political violence and accelerated carbon extraction in the Middle East and North Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Glenn C. Loury, 1978. "The Optimal Exploitation of an Unknown Reserve," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 45(3), pages 621-636.
    18. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    19. Martinet, Vincent & Rotillon, Gilles, 2007. "Invariance in growth theory and sustainable development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2827-2846, August.
    20. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights: A Puzzle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 105-128, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.12807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.